Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%), reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed 92% of its major vessels and killed IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw limited confirmed hits, including suicide boat strikes on two oil tankers near Basra and one U.S.-linked vessel, but no verified successes in the past week amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, AIS jamming, and ships paying Tehran-imposed tolls to pass. Ongoing U.S. operations targeting missile stockpiles and depleted IRGC coordination limit escalation potential, though Houthi threats and proxy actions could indirectly influence maritime risks before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
<2 47%
2–3 13%
8–9 11%
6–7 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
53%
2–3
13%
4–5
6%
6–7
9%
8–9
11%
10+
9%
<2 47%
2–3 13%
8–9 11%
6–7 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$666 Vol.
53%
2–3
$0 Vol.
13%
4–5
$0 Vol.
6%
6–7
$0 Vol.
9%
8–9
$0 Vol.
11%
10+
$90 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%), reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed 92% of its major vessels and killed IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw limited confirmed hits, including suicide boat strikes on two oil tankers near Basra and one U.S.-linked vessel, but no verified successes in the past week amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, AIS jamming, and ships paying Tehran-imposed tolls to pass. Ongoing U.S. operations targeting missile stockpiles and depleted IRGC coordination limit escalation potential, though Houthi threats and proxy actions could indirectly influence maritime risks before the deadline.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$756End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%), reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed 92% of its major vessels and killed IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw limited confirmed hits, including suicide boat strikes on two oil tankers near Basra and one U.S.-linked vessel, but no verified successes in the past week amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, AIS jamming, and ships paying Tehran-imposed tolls to pass. Ongoing U.S. operations targeting missile stockpiles and depleted IRGC coordination limit escalation potential, though Houthi threats and proxy actions could indirectly influence maritime risks before the deadline.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$756End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (52.5%), reflecting the severe degradation of Iranian naval forces following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed 92% of its major vessels and killed IRGC-Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26. Early March saw limited confirmed hits, including suicide boat strikes on two oil tankers near Basra and one U.S.-linked vessel, but no verified successes in the past week amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, AIS jamming, and ships paying Tehran-imposed tolls to pass. Ongoing U.S. operations targeting missile stockpiles and depleted IRGC coordination limit escalation potential, though Houthi threats and proxy actions could indirectly influence maritime risks before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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