Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—including recent strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27-28—traders price in 4 countries (33%) as most likely for Israel's 2026 strikes, closely trailed by 5 (28%). Ongoing airstrikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon to establish a security buffer, combined with routine operations against Syrian proxies and Houthi escalations prompting potential Yemen retaliation, anchor the consensus around this range. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether militia activity in Iraq or further Iranian proxy responses will add a fifth front, against diplomatic pushes by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Gulf states for de-escalation ahead of UN Security Council talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4 33.9%
5 27.5%
6 13.8%
3 13.1%
$5,858,278 Vol.
$5,858,278 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
13%
4
34%
5
28%
6
14%
7
5%
8
2%
9
1%
10
2%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 33.9%
5 27.5%
6 13.8%
3 13.1%
$5,858,278 Vol.
$5,858,278 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3
$1,489,890 Vol.
13%
4
$1,139,435 Vol.
34%
5
$451,867 Vol.
28%
6
$625,444 Vol.
14%
7
$584,208 Vol.
5%
8
$498,769 Vol.
2%
9
$167,867 Vol.
1%
10
$370,682 Vol.
2%
11
$89,425 Vol.
1%
12
$59,088 Vol.
<1%
13
$128,110 Vol.
<1%
14
$94,358 Vol.
<1%
15+
$33,554 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—including recent strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27-28—traders price in 4 countries (33%) as most likely for Israel's 2026 strikes, closely trailed by 5 (28%). Ongoing airstrikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon to establish a security buffer, combined with routine operations against Syrian proxies and Houthi escalations prompting potential Yemen retaliation, anchor the consensus around this range. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether militia activity in Iraq or further Iranian proxy responses will add a fifth front, against diplomatic pushes by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Gulf states for de-escalation ahead of UN Security Council talks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$5,858,278End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—including recent strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27-28—traders price in 4 countries (33%) as most likely for Israel's 2026 strikes, closely trailed by 5 (28%). Ongoing airstrikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon to establish a security buffer, combined with routine operations against Syrian proxies and Houthi escalations prompting potential Yemen retaliation, anchor the consensus around this range. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether militia activity in Iraq or further Iranian proxy responses will add a fifth front, against diplomatic pushes by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Gulf states for de-escalation ahead of UN Security Council talks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,858,278End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran that began February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure—including recent strikes on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27-28—traders price in 4 countries (33%) as most likely for Israel's 2026 strikes, closely trailed by 5 (28%). Ongoing airstrikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon to establish a security buffer, combined with routine operations against Syrian proxies and Houthi escalations prompting potential Yemen retaliation, anchor the consensus around this range. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether militia activity in Iraq or further Iranian proxy responses will add a fifth front, against diplomatic pushes by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Gulf states for de-escalation ahead of UN Security Council talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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