**Israel's 2026 military operations have centered on a limited set of fronts amid the broader regional conflict involving Iran-backed groups.** Strikes have focused on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Iranian territory during the February-initiated war and subsequent exchanges, Houthi-linked sites in Yemen, and positions in Syria, producing the four-country tally that traders currently price at 68%. Ongoing cross-border activity in Lebanon and proxy threats from Yemen have sustained these operations into October without triggering sustained campaigns elsewhere. Ceasefire frameworks, U.S. diplomatic pressure, and Israeli elections have constrained further expansion, keeping probabilities for five or more countries low at around 18%. Recent artillery and airstrikes remain concentrated on established theaters rather than opening new ones.