Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Dec 31

$270,855 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Rules

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$270,855
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 3:56 PM ET

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Dec 31

$270,855 Vol.

January 31

$156,975 Vol.

2%

March 31

$10,437 Vol.

16%

June 30

$806 Vol.

22%

December 31

$102,637 Vol.

27%

About

Volume
$270,855
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 3:56 PM ET

Beware of external links.