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Market icon

How many different countries will Iran strike in March?

Market icon

How many different countries will Iran strike in March?

9+ 32%

8 25%

7 17%

6 13%

Polymarket
NEW

$23,755 Vol.

9+ 32%

8 25%

7 17%

6 13%

Polymarket
NEW

$23,755 Vol.

0

$7,142 Vol.

1%

1

$5,887 Vol.

1%

2

$1,285 Vol.

5%

3

$1,311 Vol.

7%

4

$1,071 Vol.

5%

5

$914 Vol.

11%

6

$915 Vol.

13%

7

$1,321 Vol.

17%

8

$893 Vol.

25%

9+

$3,016 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,755
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Created At
Feb 28, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many different countries will Iran strike in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "9+" at 32%, followed by "8" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many different countries will Iran strike in March?" has generated $23.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many different countries will Iran strike in March?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many different countries will Iran strike in March?" is "9+" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "8" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many different countries will Iran strike in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.