Market icon
Politics·Canada

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Market icon
Politics·Canada

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

14% chance
Polymarket
NEW
14% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ontario Premier Doug Ford's explicit pledge to pursue a fourth term, delivered in his January 2026 Progressive Conservative convention speech amid vows to shield the province from U.S. tariff threats, anchors the strong trader consensus against a leadership change by year-end. Recent Liaison Strategies polling shows PCs holding a narrow but persistent lead at 40% over leaderless Liberals at 36% as of late February, despite Ford's 65% disapproval rating, reflecting party resilience post their 2025 majority win. No internal caucus dissent, leadership review triggers, or resignation rumors have emerged in the past month, with criticism limited to opposition and public polls on issues like healthcare, underscoring low near-term exit risk through December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ontario Premier Doug Ford's explicit pledge to pursue a fourth term, delivered in his January 2026 Progressive Conservative convention speech amid vows to shield the province from U.S. tariff threats, anchors the strong trader consensus against a leadership change by year-end. Recent Liaison Strategies polling shows PCs holding a narrow but persistent lead at 40% over leaderless Liberals at 36% as of late February, despite Ford's 65% disapproval rating, reflecting party resilience post their 2025 majority win. No internal caucus dissent, leadership review triggers, or resignation rumors have emerged in the past month, with criticism limited to opposition and public polls on issues like healthcare, underscoring low near-term exit risk through December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 14% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 14¢, the market collectively assigns a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?" is 14% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.