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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.1%

Jon Ossoff 9.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$981,012,022 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.1%

Jon Ossoff 9.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Kamala Harris 4.2%

Polymarket

$981,012,022 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$18,933,972 Vol.

24%

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Jon Ossoff

$7,428,505 Vol.

9%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$8,329,638 Vol.

8%

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Kamala Harris

$9,142,580 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,771,250 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,225,488 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$5,703,503 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$12,834,120 Vol.

2%

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Stephen A. Smith

$15,450,896 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,951,783 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$7,853,050 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,965,797 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,554,877 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,453,766 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$22,131,010 Vol.

1%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,765,086 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$13,860,557 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,620,670 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$18,108,266 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$9,312,146 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$44,003,221 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,224,207 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,763,169 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,340,086 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,900,751 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,577,472 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,826,198 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,412,061 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,504,955 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,650,565 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$37,321,476 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,359,418 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$43,020,754 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$39,061,162 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,755,529 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$38,246,052 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$28,183,846 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,745,448 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$20,390,635 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$34,486,318 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$24,149,055 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$40,297,531 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,876,655 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$32,534,536 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.1% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, buoyed by his national profile, repeated hints at a post-midterm bid, and early primary polling averages placing him near the top amid the party's post-2024 reckoning. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff trails at 9.4%, gaining from bipartisan appeal in the battleground state ahead of his 2026 re-election, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 8.0% on progressive enthusiasm and hypothetical general election polls showing strength against VP JD Vance—though pragmatists mobilize to curb her rise. Diverging from some polling averages favoring Kamala Harris, markets reflect skin-in-the-game skepticism of prior leadership; consolidation could hinge on midterm outcomes, fundraising edges, and endorsements from swing-state victories.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$981,012,022
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom leads trader consensus at 24.1% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, buoyed by his national profile, repeated hints at a post-midterm bid, and early primary polling averages placing him near the top amid the party's post-2024 reckoning. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff trails at 9.4%, gaining from bipartisan appeal in the battleground state ahead of his 2026 re-election, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds 8.0% on progressive enthusiasm and hypothetical general election polls showing strength against VP JD Vance—though pragmatists mobilize to curb her rise. Diverging from some polling averages favoring Kamala Harris, markets reflect skin-in-the-game skepticism of prior leadership; consolidation could hinge on midterm outcomes, fundraising edges, and endorsements from swing-state victories.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$981,012,022
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Jon Ossoff" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $981 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jon Ossoff" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.