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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$957,553,550 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.0%

Jon Ossoff 5.3%

Kamala Harris 4.5%

Polymarket

$957,553,550 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$17,531,180 Vol.

25%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,450,921 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$6,253,949 Vol.

5%

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Kamala Harris

$8,866,164 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$6,012,097 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,624,165 Vol.

4%

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Andy Beshear

$6,629,322 Vol.

3%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,314,160 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$4,834,909 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$10,801,365 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$11,608,189 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,917,853 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,714,287 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,674,589 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,319,914 Vol.

2%

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Michelle Obama

$21,971,438 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$14,188,133 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$43,407,849 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$21,484,816 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$11,238,341 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,945,546 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,877,284 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$17,116,500 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,209,253 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,779,738 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,483,547 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$25,335,591 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$37,557,850 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$33,447,031 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$42,890,914 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,863,210 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,524,133 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,778,413 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,699,642 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,709,417 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$25,553,481 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$26,329,648 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,832,458 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$33,404,000 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,727,059 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,717,387 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,205,682 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$39,419,506 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$32,305,173 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.8% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in this wide-open field following the party's 2024 defeat, bolstered by his recent Politico interview discussing national issues like Trump policies and Israel, plus a March Los Angeles Times poll showing him leading Kamala Harris among California Democrats. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on her progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff at 5.3% benefits from Georgia's battleground status. Markets diverge from early polls favoring Harris, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on Newsom's $25 million war chest and media savvy. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising hauls, and endorsements from party elders, with high uncertainty given the three-year timeline to primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,553,550
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.8% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in this wide-open field following the party's 2024 defeat, bolstered by his recent Politico interview discussing national issues like Trump policies and Israel, plus a March Los Angeles Times poll showing him leading Kamala Harris among California Democrats. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8% on her progressive appeal and youth, while Jon Ossoff at 5.3% benefits from Georgia's battleground status. Markets diverge from early polls favoring Harris, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on Newsom's $25 million war chest and media savvy. Consolidation could hinge on 2026 midterm results, fundraising hauls, and endorsements from party elders, with high uncertainty given the three-year timeline to primaries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$957,553,550
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $957.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.