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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 6.1%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$923,504,965 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 6.1%

Kamala Harris 4.4%

Polymarket

$923,504,965 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$15,828,563 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,021,991 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,698,606 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,509,253 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,743,105 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,271,373 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$3,328,392 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,484,621 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,465,195 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$5,929,493 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,733,250 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,475,623 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,383,441 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,090,333 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$6,962,716 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$42,536,241 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,268,250 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$20,362,988 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$10,950,085 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$10,984,997 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,458,246 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,410,381 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,544,899 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,043,229 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$31,900,418 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,608,199 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,217,753 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,845,304 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$34,968,421 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,364,302 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$36,865,304 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,186,211 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,550,918 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,044,830 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,248,247 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,050,775 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$24,948,382 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$30,785,931 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,754,679 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,155,316 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,189,225 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,163,722 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$23,918,335 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,256,871 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.With Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat leaving the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination wide open, traders price Gavin Newsom as frontrunner at 24% implied probability, driven by his California governorship incumbency, robust national fundraising exceeding $100 million in past cycles, and high-profile anti-Trump media engagements positioning him as a battle-tested executive. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8%, buoyed by her progressive grassroots appeal and social media dominance among younger voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects his swing-state Georgia Senate profile and bipartisan infrastructure wins. Differentiation hinges on ideological lanes—pragmatic governors like Newsom or Shapiro versus progressive firebrands like AOC— with consolidation likely via 2026 midterm performances, early primary polling leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden-era endorsements, and fundraising dominance amid a fragmented field of over 30 contenders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$923,504,965
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.With Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat leaving the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination wide open, traders price Gavin Newsom as frontrunner at 24% implied probability, driven by his California governorship incumbency, robust national fundraising exceeding $100 million in past cycles, and high-profile anti-Trump media engagements positioning him as a battle-tested executive. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8%, buoyed by her progressive grassroots appeal and social media dominance among younger voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects his swing-state Georgia Senate profile and bipartisan infrastructure wins. Differentiation hinges on ideological lanes—pragmatic governors like Newsom or Shapiro versus progressive firebrands like AOC— with consolidation likely via 2026 midterm performances, early primary polling leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden-era endorsements, and fundraising dominance amid a fragmented field of over 30 contenders.

With Kamala Harris's 2024 defeat leaving the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination wide open, traders price Gavin Newsom as frontrunner at 24% implied probability, driven by his California governorship incumbency, robust national fundraising exceeding $100 million in past cycles, and high-profile anti-Trump media engagements positioning him as a battle-tested executive. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8%, buoyed by her progressive grassroots appeal and social media dominance among younger voters, while Jon Ossoff's 6% reflects his swing-state Georgia Senate profile and bipartisan infrastructure wins. Differentiation hinges on ideological lanes—pragmatic governors like Newsom or Shapiro versus progressive firebrands like AOC— with consolidation likely via 2026 midterm performances, early primary polling leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden-era endorsements, and fundraising dominance amid a fragmented field of over 30 contenders.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $923.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.