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Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 4.3%

Polymarket

$927,000,726 Vol.

Gavin Newsom 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.2%

Jon Ossoff 5.8%

Kamala Harris 4.3%

Polymarket

$927,000,726 Vol.

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Gavin Newsom

$16,063,353 Vol.

24%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$6,037,056 Vol.

8%

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Jon Ossoff

$5,732,265 Vol.

6%

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Kamala Harris

$8,569,756 Vol.

4%

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Pete Buttigieg

$9,336,342 Vol.

4%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,768,647 Vol.

4%

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James Talarico

$3,387,469 Vol.

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$11,532,037 Vol.

2%

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Jon Stewart

$9,633,659 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$5,982,285 Vol.

2%

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Mark Kelly

$10,778,192 Vol.

2%

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Ruben Gallego

$3,493,788 Vol.

2%

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Wes Moore

$13,397,697 Vol.

2%

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Ro Khanna

$4,112,286 Vol.

2%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,041,811 Vol.

1%

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Oprah Winfrey

$42,708,838 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$21,304,758 Vol.

1%

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Cory Booker

$20,464,262 Vol.

1%

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Rahm Emanuel

$10,965,934 Vol.

1%

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Mark Cuban

$17,448,250 Vol.

1%

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Stephen A. Smith

$13,534,045 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,570,754 Vol.

1%

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Chris Murphy

$11,315,513 Vol.

1%

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John Fetterman

$16,650,423 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$38,284,344 Vol.

1%

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Gina Raimondo

$27,118,380 Vol.

1%

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Liz Cheney

$31,947,488 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$32,866,117 Vol.

1%

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MrBeast

$35,026,602 Vol.

1%

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Roy Cooper

$24,515,690 Vol.

1%

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George Clooney

$36,912,362 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$32,617,873 Vol.

1%

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Jared Polis

$19,108,872 Vol.

1%

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Chelsea Clinton

$44,267,129 Vol.

1%

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Hillary Clinton

$37,216,063 Vol.

1%

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Barack Obama

$25,021,310 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$36,341,465 Vol.

1%

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Beto O’Rourke

$30,871,785 Vol.

1%

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Andrew Yang

$41,808,013 Vol.

1%

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Phil Murphy

$33,290,391 Vol.

1%

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Hunter Biden

$31,252,183 Vol.

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$22,206,270 Vol.

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$24,093,274 Vol.

1%

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Bernie Sanders

$38,408,627 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by his national profile from Trump administration critiques, a $25 million war chest, and a March POLITICO poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% with progressive appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff at 5.8% on Georgia Senate success, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 3.9% buoyed by top net favorability in a recent Emerson national poll among Democrats, and former VP Harris at 4.3% post-2024 loss. Differentiators include governors' executive experience, senators' records, and ideological lanes; consolidation may follow 2026 midterms, fundraising surges, or DNC primary calendar shifts amid party reflection.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by his national profile from Trump administration critiques, a $25 million war chest, and a March POLITICO poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% with progressive appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff at 5.8% on Georgia Senate success, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 3.9% buoyed by top net favorability in a recent Emerson national poll among Democrats, and former VP Harris at 4.3% post-2024 loss. Differentiators include governors' executive experience, senators' records, and ideological lanes; consolidation may follow 2026 midterms, fundraising surges, or DNC primary calendar shifts amid party reflection.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by his national profile from Trump administration critiques, a $25 million war chest, and a March POLITICO poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% with progressive appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff at 5.8% on Georgia Senate success, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 3.9% buoyed by top net favorability in a recent Emerson national poll among Democrats, and former VP Harris at 4.3% post-2024 loss. Differentiators include governors' executive experience, senators' records, and ideological lanes; consolidation may follow 2026 midterms, fundraising surges, or DNC primary calendar shifts amid party reflection.

California Governor Gavin Newsom commands trader consensus at 24.3% implied probability for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, bolstered by his national profile from Trump administration critiques, a $25 million war chest, and a March POLITICO poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trails at 8.2% with progressive appeal, Sen. Jon Ossoff at 5.8% on Georgia Senate success, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 3.9% buoyed by top net favorability in a recent Emerson national poll among Democrats, and former VP Harris at 4.3% post-2024 loss. Differentiators include governors' executive experience, senators' records, and ideological lanes; consolidation may follow 2026 midterms, fundraising surges, or DNC primary calendar shifts amid party reflection.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 44+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, followed by "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $927 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 44+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" is "Gavin Newsom" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.