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Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Iván Cepeda Castro 45%

Paloma Valencia 39.9%

Abelardo de la Espriella 14%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$8,951,262 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 45%

Paloma Valencia 39.9%

Abelardo de la Espriella 14%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$8,951,262 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$445,403 Vol.

45%

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Paloma Valencia

$554,697 Vol.

40%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$550,635 Vol.

14%

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Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,308,081 Vol.

1%

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Claudia López (IND)

$505,981 Vol.

<1%

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Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$91,467 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$556,181 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$985,471 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$704,226 Vol.

<1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,205,991 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila (IND)

$442,070 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$380,154 Vol.

<1%

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Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$498,016 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$410,594 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$288,002 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's presidency, with Iván Cepeda Castro close at 45% and Paloma Valencia at 39.9%, mirroring fragmented polls ahead of the May 31 first-round vote. Cepeda, backed by President Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition, leads recent first-round surveys like Guarumo-Ecoanalítica's March 28 reading (37.5%) amid Petro's flagging approval, but Valencia surged after her March 9 party primary landslide for Centro Democrático, climbing to 22.2% in CNC's March poll while Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 15-20%. The right's vote split keeps the field competitive; consolidation behind one conservative, endorsements, or scandals could tip runoffs, where head-to-heads show Cepeda edging Valencia 51-49%.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$8,951,262
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket narrowly favors Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's presidency, with Iván Cepeda Castro close at 45% and Paloma Valencia at 39.9%, mirroring fragmented polls ahead of the May 31 first-round vote. Cepeda, backed by President Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition, leads recent first-round surveys like Guarumo-Ecoanalítica's March 28 reading (37.5%) amid Petro's flagging approval, but Valencia surged after her March 9 party primary landslide for Centro Democrático, climbing to 22.2% in CNC's March poll while Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 15-20%. The right's vote split keeps the field competitive; consolidation behind one conservative, endorsements, or scandals could tip runoffs, where head-to-heads show Cepeda edging Valencia 51-49%.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$8,951,262
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Related

Market icon

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

76%
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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

14%
Market icon

Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

95%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 45%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election" has generated $9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.