Polls from early December consistently show CDU leading Berlin's Landtag rerun election—scheduled for 28 September 2025 after the 2023 vote's invalidation due to administrative chaos—with 28-32% support, double that of AfD at 18-22%, driving trader consensus to 53.5% implied probability for a CDU plurality win. Incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition gains from relative stability amid housing shortages, budget gridlock, and infrastructure failures that have eroded SPD, Grüne, and Linke backing to 12-15% each. AfD benefits from immigration and crime discontent but remains a distant second. No pivotal developments in the past week; upcoming surveys and campaign launches could influence the fragmented multiparty field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBerlin State Election Winner
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU 54%
AfD 14.9%
Linke 13%
Grüne 9.7%
$789,595 Vol.
$789,595 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
54%
AfD
15%
Linke
13%
Grüne
10%
SPD
10%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 54%
AfD 14.9%
Linke 13%
Grüne 9.7%
$789,595 Vol.
$789,595 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,222 Vol.
54%
AfD
$465,773 Vol.
15%
Linke
$7,836 Vol.
13%
Grüne
$22,098 Vol.
10%
SPD
$268,363 Vol.
10%
BSW
$5,697 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,687 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,560 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Polls from early December consistently show CDU leading Berlin's Landtag rerun election—scheduled for 28 September 2025 after the 2023 vote's invalidation due to administrative chaos—with 28-32% support, double that of AfD at 18-22%, driving trader consensus to 53.5% implied probability for a CDU plurality win. Incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition gains from relative stability amid housing shortages, budget gridlock, and infrastructure failures that have eroded SPD, Grüne, and Linke backing to 12-15% each. AfD benefits from immigration and crime discontent but remains a distant second. No pivotal developments in the past week; upcoming surveys and campaign launches could influence the fragmented multiparty field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$789,595End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Polls from early December consistently show CDU leading Berlin's Landtag rerun election—scheduled for 28 September 2025 after the 2023 vote's invalidation due to administrative chaos—with 28-32% support, double that of AfD at 18-22%, driving trader consensus to 53.5% implied probability for a CDU plurality win. Incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition gains from relative stability amid housing shortages, budget gridlock, and infrastructure failures that have eroded SPD, Grüne, and Linke backing to 12-15% each. AfD benefits from immigration and crime discontent but remains a distant second. No pivotal developments in the past week; upcoming surveys and campaign launches could influence the fragmented multiparty field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$789,595End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polls from early December consistently show CDU leading Berlin's Landtag rerun election—scheduled for 28 September 2025 after the 2023 vote's invalidation due to administrative chaos—with 28-32% support, double that of AfD at 18-22%, driving trader consensus to 53.5% implied probability for a CDU plurality win. Incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition gains from relative stability amid housing shortages, budget gridlock, and infrastructure failures that have eroded SPD, Grüne, and Linke backing to 12-15% each. AfD benefits from immigration and crime discontent but remains a distant second. No pivotal developments in the past week; upcoming surveys and campaign launches could influence the fragmented multiparty field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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