Incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holds narrow leads in the latest polls over Republican primary frontrunners Rep. Andy Biggs (42%-37%) and Rep. David Schweikert (44%-35%), per Noble Predictive Insights' late February survey released March 4, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 75.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Sabato's Crystal Ball upgraded the race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat on March 19, citing GOP infighting after Karrin Taylor Robson's February dropout and Hobbs' cross-aisle appeal amid Democratic gains in recent Arizona special elections. The competitive August Republican primary risks nominating a weaker general election candidate against the narrow 2022 winner, though Republicans maintain registration advantages and national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArizona Governor Election Winner
Arizona Governor Election Winner
$36,729 Vol.
$36,729 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
76%
Republican
22%
$36,729 Vol.
$36,729 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$19,941 Vol.
76%
Republican
$16,788 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holds narrow leads in the latest polls over Republican primary frontrunners Rep. Andy Biggs (42%-37%) and Rep. David Schweikert (44%-35%), per Noble Predictive Insights' late February survey released March 4, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 75.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Sabato's Crystal Ball upgraded the race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat on March 19, citing GOP infighting after Karrin Taylor Robson's February dropout and Hobbs' cross-aisle appeal amid Democratic gains in recent Arizona special elections. The competitive August Republican primary risks nominating a weaker general election candidate against the narrow 2022 winner, though Republicans maintain registration advantages and national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$36,729End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holds narrow leads in the latest polls over Republican primary frontrunners Rep. Andy Biggs (42%-37%) and Rep. David Schweikert (44%-35%), per Noble Predictive Insights' late February survey released March 4, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 75.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Sabato's Crystal Ball upgraded the race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat on March 19, citing GOP infighting after Karrin Taylor Robson's February dropout and Hobbs' cross-aisle appeal amid Democratic gains in recent Arizona special elections. The competitive August Republican primary risks nominating a weaker general election candidate against the narrow 2022 winner, though Republicans maintain registration advantages and national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$36,729End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holds narrow leads in the latest polls over Republican primary frontrunners Rep. Andy Biggs (42%-37%) and Rep. David Schweikert (44%-35%), per Noble Predictive Insights' late February survey released March 4, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 75.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Sabato's Crystal Ball upgraded the race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat on March 19, citing GOP infighting after Karrin Taylor Robson's February dropout and Hobbs' cross-aisle appeal amid Democratic gains in recent Arizona special elections. The competitive August Republican primary risks nominating a weaker general election candidate against the narrow 2022 winner, though Republicans maintain registration advantages and national midterm dynamics could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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