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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 37.0%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,976,364 Vol.

J.D. Vance 37.0%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,976,364 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,054,118 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,930,359 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,484,935 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,286,546 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,581,877 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,016,762 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,941,349 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,690,482 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,471,164 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,949,195 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,999,275 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,477,476 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,966,664 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,676,030 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,128,913 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,634,066 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,691,658 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,320,488 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,414,663 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,345,271 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,283,737 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,489,994 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,854,993 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,439 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,567,009 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,345,886 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,240,454 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,701,668 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,867 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,611,191 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,717,769 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,767,327 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,413,399 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,294,420 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,856,095 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination on Polymarket, propelled by his recent launch of a national "Take Back Your Health" midterm tour on April 4 to bolster Make America Healthy Again support amid a Politico poll revealing voter dissatisfaction yet loyal base turnout from his 2024 coalition expansion. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37%, buoyed by incumbency proximity to President Trump but pressured by public criticisms from influencers like Tucker Carlson, signaling intraparty tensions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 21%, gaining as a Senate-confirmed bridge between MAGA and establishment wings ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape primary dynamics. Term limits bar Trump's third run, opening a contested field with early polling trends and cabinet visibility driving odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,976,364
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination on Polymarket, propelled by his recent launch of a national "Take Back Your Health" midterm tour on April 4 to bolster Make America Healthy Again support amid a Politico poll revealing voter dissatisfaction yet loyal base turnout from his 2024 coalition expansion. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37%, buoyed by incumbency proximity to President Trump but pressured by public criticisms from influencers like Tucker Carlson, signaling intraparty tensions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 21%, gaining as a Senate-confirmed bridge between MAGA and establishment wings ahead of 2026 midterms that could reshape primary dynamics. Term limits bar Trump's third run, opening a contested field with early polling trends and cabinet visibility driving odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,976,364
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $520 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.