Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, including a Franklin & Marshall survey (February 18–March 1) showing Shapiro at 48% to Garrity's 28% and a Quinnipiac poll (February 19–23) with 55%–37%. Shapiro's 60% job approval, massive fundraising advantage (15-to-1 in 2025), and lack of serious primary challengers solidify his frontrunner status in this battleground state. Scenarios that could shift odds include a GOP primary upset yielding a stronger nominee, major scandal, economic downturn, or national Republican wave ahead of May primaries and the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPennsylvania Governor Election Winner
Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner
$14,082 Vol.
$14,082 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
6%
$14,082 Vol.
$14,082 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$4,995 Vol.
94%
Republican
$9,087 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, including a Franklin & Marshall survey (February 18–March 1) showing Shapiro at 48% to Garrity's 28% and a Quinnipiac poll (February 19–23) with 55%–37%. Shapiro's 60% job approval, massive fundraising advantage (15-to-1 in 2025), and lack of serious primary challengers solidify his frontrunner status in this battleground state. Scenarios that could shift odds include a GOP primary upset yielding a stronger nominee, major scandal, economic downturn, or national Republican wave ahead of May primaries and the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$14,082End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, including a Franklin & Marshall survey (February 18–March 1) showing Shapiro at 48% to Garrity's 28% and a Quinnipiac poll (February 19–23) with 55%–37%. Shapiro's 60% job approval, massive fundraising advantage (15-to-1 in 2025), and lack of serious primary challengers solidify his frontrunner status in this battleground state. Scenarios that could shift odds include a GOP primary upset yielding a stronger nominee, major scandal, economic downturn, or national Republican wave ahead of May primaries and the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$14,082End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, including a Franklin & Marshall survey (February 18–March 1) showing Shapiro at 48% to Garrity's 28% and a Quinnipiac poll (February 19–23) with 55%–37%. Shapiro's 60% job approval, massive fundraising advantage (15-to-1 in 2025), and lack of serious primary challengers solidify his frontrunner status in this battleground state. Scenarios that could shift odds include a GOP primary upset yielding a stronger nominee, major scandal, economic downturn, or national Republican wave ahead of May primaries and the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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