Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts swiftly elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, issuing statements as recently as March 20 affirming resistance amid ongoing retaliatory strikes against Israel and US interests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained firm control, suppressing winter protests and preventing mass uprisings or defections despite economic strains from the war. Israeli and US intelligence assessments indicate no immediate regime fracture, underscoring institutional resilience built over decades. Traders' 81.5% implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus on stability through June 30, though escalation, leadership health concerns, or diplomatic shifts could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$22,438,582 Vol.
$22,438,582 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$22,438,582 Vol.
$22,438,582 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts swiftly elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, issuing statements as recently as March 20 affirming resistance amid ongoing retaliatory strikes against Israel and US interests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained firm control, suppressing winter protests and preventing mass uprisings or defections despite economic strains from the war. Israeli and US intelligence assessments indicate no immediate regime fracture, underscoring institutional resilience built over decades. Traders' 81.5% implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus on stability through June 30, though escalation, leadership health concerns, or diplomatic shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$22,438,582End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts swiftly elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, issuing statements as recently as March 20 affirming resistance amid ongoing retaliatory strikes against Israel and US interests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained firm control, suppressing winter protests and preventing mass uprisings or defections despite economic strains from the war. Israeli and US intelligence assessments indicate no immediate regime fracture, underscoring institutional resilience built over decades. Traders' 81.5% implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus on stability through June 30, though escalation, leadership health concerns, or diplomatic shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,438,582End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, Iran's Assembly of Experts swiftly elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, issuing statements as recently as March 20 affirming resistance amid ongoing retaliatory strikes against Israel and US interests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained firm control, suppressing winter protests and preventing mass uprisings or defections despite economic strains from the war. Israeli and US intelligence assessments indicate no immediate regime fracture, underscoring institutional resilience built over decades. Traders' 81.5% implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus on stability through June 30, though escalation, leadership health concerns, or diplomatic shifts could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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