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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,170,274 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,170,274 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,877,393 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,626,224 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,263,738 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,962,027 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,606,310 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,330,293 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,739,823 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,761 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,986,642 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,350,061 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,283,938 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,022,468 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,708,881 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,165,664 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,940,782 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,141,321 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,202,324 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,945,845 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,901,697 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,184,459 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,102,803 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,958,837 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,298,783 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,978,244 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,750,716 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,373,816 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,630,100 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,146,671 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,260,817 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,623,020 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,909,833 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,141,920 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,699,289 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,735,952 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,531,032 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, well ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from national polling averages where Vance leads decisively around 45%. RFK Jr.'s edge reflects his high-profile Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives as HHS head, resonating with populist GOP voters on health and vaccine policy reforms, amplified by his cousin's March 7 assertion of a "definite" 2028 bid despite prior denials. Vance holds as natural successor amid incumbency advantages, while Rubio gains from his March diplomatic role in Iran tensions and quiet GOP donor drafting efforts. With primaries over two years away, early speculation and $490 million in volume underscore an open, contested field.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, well ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from national polling averages where Vance leads decisively around 45%. RFK Jr.'s edge reflects his high-profile Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives as HHS head, resonating with populist GOP voters on health and vaccine policy reforms, amplified by his cousin's March 7 assertion of a "definite" 2028 bid despite prior denials. Vance holds as natural successor amid incumbency advantages, while Rubio gains from his March diplomatic role in Iran tensions and quiet GOP donor drafting efforts. With primaries over two years away, early speculation and $490 million in volume underscore an open, contested field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, well ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from national polling averages where Vance leads decisively around 45%. RFK Jr.'s edge reflects his high-profile Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives as HHS head, resonating with populist GOP voters on health and vaccine policy reforms, amplified by his cousin's March 7 assertion of a "definite" 2028 bid despite prior denials. Vance holds as natural successor amid incumbency advantages, while Rubio gains from his March diplomatic role in Iran tensions and quiet GOP donor drafting efforts. With primaries over two years away, early speculation and $490 million in volume underscore an open, contested field.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, well ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), diverging from national polling averages where Vance leads decisively around 45%. RFK Jr.'s edge reflects his high-profile Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives as HHS head, resonating with populist GOP voters on health and vaccine policy reforms, amplified by his cousin's March 7 assertion of a "definite" 2028 bid despite prior denials. Vance holds as natural successor amid incumbency advantages, while Rubio gains from his March diplomatic role in Iran tensions and quiet GOP donor drafting efforts. With primaries over two years away, early speculation and $490 million in volume underscore an open, contested field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $491.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.