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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,582,744 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$491,582,744 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,877,708 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,627,790 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,264,036 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,962,203 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,606,716 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,331,037 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,739,878 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,761 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,986,642 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,350,061 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,284,044 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,022,468 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,709,031 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,165,664 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,940,782 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,228,464 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,202,324 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,018,149 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,945,845 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,901,697 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,184,459 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,102,803 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,298,783 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,978,244 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,750,716 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,375,229 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,659,903 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,146,671 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,398,288 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,623,365 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,914,242 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,143,096 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,699,860 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,736,906 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,532,872 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Vice President J.D. Vance holds a polling edge among Republicans for the 2028 presidential nomination, but Polymarket traders' consensus prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability, reflecting his prominence as Health and Human Services Secretary and crossover appeal from his prior independent run and Trump endorsement. J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by incumbency as heir apparent yet facing scrutiny over base enthusiasm, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share surged following reports of donor preferences over Vance in private Trump soundings and a strong second-place finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, where Vance won but saw his lead narrow amid activist divides. With President Trump's constitutional term limits barring a third run, early positioning highlights tensions between MAGA loyalists, establishment figures, and outsiders ahead of primaries.

Vice President J.D. Vance holds a polling edge among Republicans for the 2028 presidential nomination, but Polymarket traders' consensus prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability, reflecting his prominence as Health and Human Services Secretary and crossover appeal from his prior independent run and Trump endorsement. J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by incumbency as heir apparent yet facing scrutiny over base enthusiasm, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share surged following reports of donor preferences over Vance in private Trump soundings and a strong second-place finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, where Vance won but saw his lead narrow amid activist divides. With President Trump's constitutional term limits barring a third run, early positioning highlights tensions between MAGA loyalists, establishment figures, and outsiders ahead of primaries.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Vice President J.D. Vance holds a polling edge among Republicans for the 2028 presidential nomination, but Polymarket traders' consensus prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability, reflecting his prominence as Health and Human Services Secretary and crossover appeal from his prior independent run and Trump endorsement. J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by incumbency as heir apparent yet facing scrutiny over base enthusiasm, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share surged following reports of donor preferences over Vance in private Trump soundings and a strong second-place finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, where Vance won but saw his lead narrow amid activist divides. With President Trump's constitutional term limits barring a third run, early positioning highlights tensions between MAGA loyalists, establishment figures, and outsiders ahead of primaries.

Vice President J.D. Vance holds a polling edge among Republicans for the 2028 presidential nomination, but Polymarket traders' consensus prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability, reflecting his prominence as Health and Human Services Secretary and crossover appeal from his prior independent run and Trump endorsement. J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by incumbency as heir apparent yet facing scrutiny over base enthusiasm, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share surged following reports of donor preferences over Vance in private Trump soundings and a strong second-place finish in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, where Vance won but saw his lead narrow amid activist divides. With President Trump's constitutional term limits barring a third run, early positioning highlights tensions between MAGA loyalists, establishment figures, and outsiders ahead of primaries.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $491.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.