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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,961,273 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,961,273 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,053,339 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,930,296 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,484,887 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,279,291 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,581,314 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,016,762 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,941,151 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,690,482 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,471,164 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,949,195 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,999,275 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,476,976 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,960,672 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,676,030 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,128,213 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,634,066 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,691,220 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,320,488 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,414,663 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,345,271 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,283,737 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,489,994 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,853,727 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,439 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,567,009 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,345,781 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,239,676 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,700,968 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,867 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,611,191 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,717,769 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,767,327 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,413,399 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,293,721 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,855,317 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tops trader consensus at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his April 4 launch of a midterm travel blitz through swing states to rally "MAHA" support, amplifying speculation of a primary run despite earlier disavowals from his wife and family. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% as his early lead narrows amid reports President Trump polled major donors, who largely favored Secretary of State Marco Rubio—now at 21%—highlighting emerging factional divides. Rubio gains from a recent CPAC straw poll surge to 35% and Trump's public praise, with 2026 midterms poised to test these early positioning dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,961,273
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tops trader consensus at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his April 4 launch of a midterm travel blitz through swing states to rally "MAHA" support, amplifying speculation of a primary run despite earlier disavowals from his wife and family. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% as his early lead narrows amid reports President Trump polled major donors, who largely favored Secretary of State Marco Rubio—now at 21%—highlighting emerging factional divides. Rubio gains from a recent CPAC straw poll surge to 35% and Trump's public praise, with 2026 midterms poised to test these early positioning dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,961,273
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $520 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.