A US-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, has largely held despite mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli airstrikes on suspected Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and intermittent rocket fire from the group. Israel concluded its limited ground operation in late November, withdrawing most forces while UNIFIL monitors compliance with terms requiring Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River. No major escalations reported in the past 48 hours, but traders eye fragile de-escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic pressures from Washington and regional actors. Upcoming withdrawal deadlines and potential proxy provocations could trigger renewed military action, reflecting trader consensus on elevated but contained risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$2,789,800 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 20
100%
March 27
96%
March 28
92%
March 29
91%
March 30
91%
March 31
88%
$2,789,800 Vol.
March 20
$2,592,997 Vol.
100%
March 27
$22,346 Vol.
96%
March 28
$15,977 Vol.
92%
March 29
$10,148 Vol.
91%
March 30
$1,987 Vol.
91%
March 31
$22,546 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A US-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, has largely held despite mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli airstrikes on suspected Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and intermittent rocket fire from the group. Israel concluded its limited ground operation in late November, withdrawing most forces while UNIFIL monitors compliance with terms requiring Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River. No major escalations reported in the past 48 hours, but traders eye fragile de-escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic pressures from Washington and regional actors. Upcoming withdrawal deadlines and potential proxy provocations could trigger renewed military action, reflecting trader consensus on elevated but contained risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
Volume
$2,789,800End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A US-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, has largely held despite mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli airstrikes on suspected Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and intermittent rocket fire from the group. Israel concluded its limited ground operation in late November, withdrawing most forces while UNIFIL monitors compliance with terms requiring Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River. No major escalations reported in the past 48 hours, but traders eye fragile de-escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic pressures from Washington and regional actors. Upcoming withdrawal deadlines and potential proxy provocations could trigger renewed military action, reflecting trader consensus on elevated but contained risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,789,800End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, has largely held despite mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli airstrikes on suspected Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and intermittent rocket fire from the group. Israel concluded its limited ground operation in late November, withdrawing most forces while UNIFIL monitors compliance with terms requiring Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River. No major escalations reported in the past 48 hours, but traders eye fragile de-escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic pressures from Washington and regional actors. Upcoming withdrawal deadlines and potential proxy provocations could trigger renewed military action, reflecting trader consensus on elevated but contained risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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