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Politics·Iran

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Iran

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

$360,737 Vol.

Polymarket

$360,737 Vol.

Polymarket

Fordow nuclear facility

$97,354 Vol.

10%

Isfahan nuclear facility

$97,082 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran persist amid Iran's advancing nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels at sites like Natanz and Fordow, fueling calls for preemptive action from Israeli leaders and incoming Trump administration officials signaling a hawkish foreign policy shift post-January 20 inauguration. The most recent major development was Israel's October 26, 2024, airstrikes on Iranian military and missile production facilities—avoiding nuclear or oil targets—in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile attack, with no verified escalations in the past 60 days despite ongoing proxy conflicts via Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential IAEA deadlines, and regional ceasefires through March 31 for catalysts that could trigger strikes on IRGC bases, nuclear infrastructure, or leadership, though US restraint and mutual deterrence currently temper odds of major action.

Tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran persist amid Iran's advancing nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels at sites like Natanz and Fordow, fueling calls for preemptive action from Israeli leaders and incoming Trump administration officials signaling a hawkish foreign policy shift post-January 20 inauguration. The most recent major development was Israel's October 26, 2024, airstrikes on Iranian military and missile production facilities—avoiding nuclear or oil targets—in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile attack, with no verified escalations in the past 60 days despite ongoing proxy conflicts via Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential IAEA deadlines, and regional ceasefires through March 31 for catalysts that could trigger strikes on IRGC bases, nuclear infrastructure, or leadership, though US restraint and mutual deterrence currently temper odds of major action.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran persist amid Iran's advancing nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels at sites like Natanz and Fordow, fueling calls for preemptive action from Israeli leaders and incoming Trump administration officials signaling a hawkish foreign policy shift post-January 20 inauguration. The most recent major development was Israel's October 26, 2024, airstrikes on Iranian military and missile production facilities—avoiding nuclear or oil targets—in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile attack, with no verified escalations in the past 60 days despite ongoing proxy conflicts via Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential IAEA deadlines, and regional ceasefires through March 31 for catalysts that could trigger strikes on IRGC bases, nuclear infrastructure, or leadership, though US restraint and mutual deterrence currently temper odds of major action.

Tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran persist amid Iran's advancing nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels at sites like Natanz and Fordow, fueling calls for preemptive action from Israeli leaders and incoming Trump administration officials signaling a hawkish foreign policy shift post-January 20 inauguration. The most recent major development was Israel's October 26, 2024, airstrikes on Iranian military and missile production facilities—avoiding nuclear or oil targets—in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile attack, with no verified escalations in the past 60 days despite ongoing proxy conflicts via Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, potential IAEA deadlines, and regional ceasefires through March 31 for catalysts that could trigger strikes on IRGC bases, nuclear infrastructure, or leadership, though US restraint and mutual deterrence currently temper odds of major action.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nuclear" at 100%, followed by "Oil/Gas" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?" has generated $360.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?" is "Nuclear" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Oil/Gas" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.