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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$490,213,701 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$490,213,701 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,855,826 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,617,237 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,261,282 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,958,198 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,599,838 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,327,148 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,738,373 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,875,738 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,986,642 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,283,832 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,349,877 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,022,201 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,708,039 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,164,471 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,940,757 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,139,341 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,201,932 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,945,085 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,897,908 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,184,331 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,101,049 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,958,768 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,298,603 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,748,363 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,342,260 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,597,673 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,056,363 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,259,645 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,621,212 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,741,809 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,871,074 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,868,064 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,665,674 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,613,695 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,412,172 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role implementing Make America Healthy Again reforms, recent CPAC speech highlighting HHS achievements, and crossover appeal to populist voters despite judicial blocks on vaccine policy changes. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37% after a sharp dip to 18% last week amid reports of donor preferences favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), whom President Trump reportedly polled major contributors against Vance as a potential successor. Odds reflect early speculation in Trump's second term, with 2026 midterms poised to shape primary paths amid diverging CPAC straw polls showing Vance ahead.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role implementing Make America Healthy Again reforms, recent CPAC speech highlighting HHS achievements, and crossover appeal to populist voters despite judicial blocks on vaccine policy changes. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37% after a sharp dip to 18% last week amid reports of donor preferences favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), whom President Trump reportedly polled major contributors against Vance as a potential successor. Odds reflect early speculation in Trump's second term, with 2026 midterms poised to shape primary paths amid diverging CPAC straw polls showing Vance ahead.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role implementing Make America Healthy Again reforms, recent CPAC speech highlighting HHS achievements, and crossover appeal to populist voters despite judicial blocks on vaccine policy changes. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37% after a sharp dip to 18% last week amid reports of donor preferences favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), whom President Trump reportedly polled major contributors against Vance as a potential successor. Odds reflect early speculation in Trump's second term, with 2026 midterms poised to shape primary paths amid diverging CPAC straw polls showing Vance ahead.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile role implementing Make America Healthy Again reforms, recent CPAC speech highlighting HHS achievements, and crossover appeal to populist voters despite judicial blocks on vaccine policy changes. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37% after a sharp dip to 18% last week amid reports of donor preferences favoring Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), whom President Trump reportedly polled major contributors against Vance as a potential successor. Odds reflect early speculation in Trump's second term, with 2026 midterms poised to shape primary paths amid diverging CPAC straw polls showing Vance ahead.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $490.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.