Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On leaderboard with Elo scores of 1501–1502, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini by at least 8 points, fueling the 74.5% implied probability for holding #1 through April 30. This lead stems from February's state-of-the-art releases excelling in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and style-adapted outputs, bolstered by March's rapid shipping of features like persistent memory, voice mode, and industry plugins that enhance real-world benchmarks. Traders see limited near-term threats absent confirmed launches from challengers, though xAI (7.6%) and Google (7%) linger as contenders if previews materialize before resolution; watch for LMSYS updates or surprise announcements in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 75%
xAI 7.6%
Google 7%
OpenAI 3.4%
$414,032 Vol.
$414,032 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
xAI
8%
7%
OpenAI
3%
Mistral
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 75%
xAI 7.6%
Google 7%
OpenAI 3.4%
$414,032 Vol.
$414,032 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$12,043 Vol.
75%
xAI
$6,980 Vol.
8%
$21,048 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$50,580 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$60,581 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$138,844 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$57,012 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$5,050 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$5,095 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$23,351 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$24,381 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$4,638 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On leaderboard with Elo scores of 1501–1502, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini by at least 8 points, fueling the 74.5% implied probability for holding #1 through April 30. This lead stems from February's state-of-the-art releases excelling in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and style-adapted outputs, bolstered by March's rapid shipping of features like persistent memory, voice mode, and industry plugins that enhance real-world benchmarks. Traders see limited near-term threats absent confirmed launches from challengers, though xAI (7.6%) and Google (7%) linger as contenders if previews materialize before resolution; watch for LMSYS updates or surprise announcements in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$414,032End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On leaderboard with Elo scores of 1501–1502, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini by at least 8 points, fueling the 74.5% implied probability for holding #1 through April 30. This lead stems from February's state-of-the-art releases excelling in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and style-adapted outputs, bolstered by March's rapid shipping of features like persistent memory, voice mode, and industry plugins that enhance real-world benchmarks. Traders see limited near-term threats absent confirmed launches from challengers, though xAI (7.6%) and Google (7%) linger as contenders if previews materialize before resolution; watch for LMSYS updates or surprise announcements in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$414,032End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominate the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On leaderboard with Elo scores of 1501–1502, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok and Google's Gemini by at least 8 points, fueling the 74.5% implied probability for holding #1 through April 30. This lead stems from February's state-of-the-art releases excelling in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and style-adapted outputs, bolstered by March's rapid shipping of features like persistent memory, voice mode, and industry plugins that enhance real-world benchmarks. Traders see limited near-term threats absent confirmed launches from challengers, though xAI (7.6%) and Google (7%) linger as contenders if previews materialize before resolution; watch for LMSYS updates or surprise announcements in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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