Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or DOJ investigations amid a purely civil dispute with the Trump administration. In February 2026, the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after Amodei refused demands to enable its Claude AI for military surveillance or autonomous weapons, prompting President Trump's Truth Social directive to phase out the technology and threats of civil penalties. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits in March, ongoing without criminal escalation. This high confidence stems from no evidence of prosecutable offenses, though late-breaking referrals from the dispute or unrelated probes could theoretically shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$159,377 Vol.
$159,377 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$159,377 Vol.
$159,377 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or DOJ investigations amid a purely civil dispute with the Trump administration. In February 2026, the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after Amodei refused demands to enable its Claude AI for military surveillance or autonomous weapons, prompting President Trump's Truth Social directive to phase out the technology and threats of civil penalties. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits in March, ongoing without criminal escalation. This high confidence stems from no evidence of prosecutable offenses, though late-breaking referrals from the dispute or unrelated probes could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$159,377End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or DOJ investigations amid a purely civil dispute with the Trump administration. In February 2026, the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after Amodei refused demands to enable its Claude AI for military surveillance or autonomous weapons, prompting President Trump's Truth Social directive to phase out the technology and threats of civil penalties. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits in March, ongoing without criminal escalation. This high confidence stems from no evidence of prosecutable offenses, though late-breaking referrals from the dispute or unrelated probes could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$159,377End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, indictments, or DOJ investigations amid a purely civil dispute with the Trump administration. In February 2026, the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after Amodei refused demands to enable its Claude AI for military surveillance or autonomous weapons, prompting President Trump's Truth Social directive to phase out the technology and threats of civil penalties. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits in March, ongoing without criminal escalation. This high confidence stems from no evidence of prosecutable offenses, though late-breaking referrals from the dispute or unrelated probes could theoretically shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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