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Geopolitics·Trump

US forces enter Iran by..?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump

US forces enter Iran by..?

$52,878,732 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$52,878,732 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$36,268,771 Vol.

7%

April 30

$8,726,660 Vol.

72%

December 31

$5,811,349 Vol.

79%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the 2026 Iran War's intense air campaign—initiated February 28 by US and Israeli strikes degrading over 10,000 Iranian targets—recent US military deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the Middle East, including 3,500 Marines from USS Tripoli, 82nd Airborne units, and Marine Expeditionary forces, signal preparations for potential ground operations. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators last week, countering with strikes on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that injured troops, while President Trump has floated seizing Kharg Island oil facilities. Diplomatic talks remain stalled as of March 30, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran; further airstrikes or negotiation breakthroughs could tip escalation dynamics ahead of any invasion timeline.

Amid the 2026 Iran War's intense air campaign—initiated February 28 by US and Israeli strikes degrading over 10,000 Iranian targets—recent US military deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the Middle East, including 3,500 Marines from USS Tripoli, 82nd Airborne units, and Marine Expeditionary forces, signal preparations for potential ground operations. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators last week, countering with strikes on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that injured troops, while President Trump has floated seizing Kharg Island oil facilities. Diplomatic talks remain stalled as of March 30, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran; further airstrikes or negotiation breakthroughs could tip escalation dynamics ahead of any invasion timeline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the 2026 Iran War's intense air campaign—initiated February 28 by US and Israeli strikes degrading over 10,000 Iranian targets—recent US military deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the Middle East, including 3,500 Marines from USS Tripoli, 82nd Airborne units, and Marine Expeditionary forces, signal preparations for potential ground operations. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators last week, countering with strikes on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that injured troops, while President Trump has floated seizing Kharg Island oil facilities. Diplomatic talks remain stalled as of March 30, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran; further airstrikes or negotiation breakthroughs could tip escalation dynamics ahead of any invasion timeline.

Amid the 2026 Iran War's intense air campaign—initiated February 28 by US and Israeli strikes degrading over 10,000 Iranian targets—recent US military deployments exceeding 50,000 troops in the Middle East, including 3,500 Marines from USS Tripoli, 82nd Airborne units, and Marine Expeditionary forces, signal preparations for potential ground operations. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators last week, countering with strikes on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that injured troops, while President Trump has floated seizing Kharg Island oil facilities. Diplomatic talks remain stalled as of March 30, with no confirmed US ground entry into Iran; further airstrikes or negotiation breakthroughs could tip escalation dynamics ahead of any invasion timeline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US forces enter Iran by..?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 79%, followed by "April 30" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US forces enter Iran by..?" has generated $52.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US forces enter Iran by..?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US forces enter Iran by..?" is "December 31" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 72%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US forces enter Iran by..?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.