Trader consensus prices a 57.5% implied probability on Russian military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31, driven by persistent airstrikes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. President Zelenskyy reported on March 29 that Russia deployed over 3,000 strike drones, 1,450 guided aerial bombs, and 40 missiles against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv this week alone, following massive barrages of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24 and strikes hitting Kyiv on March 27-28. Air raid alerts and air defense engagements continue in the capital region, signaling no de-escalation despite Ukrainian drone hits on Russian oil export sites like Ust-Luga port. With just two days left, the pattern of frequent drone and missile salvos sustains elevated odds, though improved Ukrainian intercepts introduce uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
NEW
$11,564 Vol.
NEW
$11,564 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
$11,564 Vol.
NEW
$11,564 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices a 57.5% implied probability on Russian military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31, driven by persistent airstrikes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. President Zelenskyy reported on March 29 that Russia deployed over 3,000 strike drones, 1,450 guided aerial bombs, and 40 missiles against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv this week alone, following massive barrages of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24 and strikes hitting Kyiv on March 27-28. Air raid alerts and air defense engagements continue in the capital region, signaling no de-escalation despite Ukrainian drone hits on Russian oil export sites like Ust-Luga port. With just two days left, the pattern of frequent drone and missile salvos sustains elevated odds, though improved Ukrainian intercepts introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$11,564End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices a 57.5% implied probability on Russian military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31, driven by persistent airstrikes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. President Zelenskyy reported on March 29 that Russia deployed over 3,000 strike drones, 1,450 guided aerial bombs, and 40 missiles against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv this week alone, following massive barrages of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24 and strikes hitting Kyiv on March 27-28. Air raid alerts and air defense engagements continue in the capital region, signaling no de-escalation despite Ukrainian drone hits on Russian oil export sites like Ust-Luga port. With just two days left, the pattern of frequent drone and missile salvos sustains elevated odds, though improved Ukrainian intercepts introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts.
Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$11,564End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 57.5% implied probability on Russian military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31, driven by persistent airstrikes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. President Zelenskyy reported on March 29 that Russia deployed over 3,000 strike drones, 1,450 guided aerial bombs, and 40 missiles against Ukrainian cities including Kyiv this week alone, following massive barrages of nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24 and strikes hitting Kyiv on March 27-28. Air raid alerts and air defense engagements continue in the capital region, signaling no de-escalation despite Ukrainian drone hits on Russian oil export sites like Ust-Luga port. With just two days left, the pattern of frequent drone and missile salvos sustains elevated odds, though improved Ukrainian intercepts introduce uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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