Israel's Knesset advanced a coalition-backed bill to dissolve parliament in a preliminary 110-0 vote on May 20, 2026, setting the stage for legislative elections no later than late October and potentially as early as September. Strains within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, particularly over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and tensions with far-right partners, have accelerated the timeline. Recent polling shows his Likud-led bloc trailing opposition alliances, including those led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, raising the prospect of a loss of majority. Netanyahu continues his corruption trial while managing ongoing security issues with Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza. These factors shape trader assessments of his tenure ahead of the vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIsrael's parliament votes to dissolve itself, moving toward snap elections
December 31 rises to 53%3%
The Knesset voted almost unanimously to dissolve itself, a move triggered by ultra-Orthodox parties' loss of trust in Netanyahu, setting the stage for early elections and increasing uncertainty about Netanyahu's future.
Israel's parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
May 31 dips to 0%1%
The Knesset vote to dissolve itself confirmed the early election path, significantly reducing the likelihood of Netanyahu stepping down and causing the May 31 outcome price to reach 0%.
Knesset votes to dissolve itself in preliminary vote amid coalition pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties
May 31 dips to 0%3%
This decisive event triggered the market's final price drop to 0% on May 31, confirming early elections were imminent.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 53%2%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and ceasefire process. This event contributed to a slight increase in market confidence regarding his continuation in office.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza amid ceasefire talks
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s government conducted a major operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, a key step before advancing the ceasefire’s second phase. This demonstrated Netanyahu’s continued control and leadership, contributing to the market’s sharp decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 rises to 51%1%
The recovery of the last hostage's remains in Gaza was a significant event for Netanyahu's government, reinforcing his leadership during the ongoing conflict and peace process, which likely contributed to the stabilization of the December 31 outcome price around 51%.
Netanyahu urges calm after Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Netanyahu's government faced international criticism after Israeli police forcibly entered a UN Palestinian aid agency compound, underscoring ongoing tensions but no indication of resignation, maintaining market skepticism.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire next steps, reflecting internal political tensions but maintaining Netanyahu's leadership role, which likely stabilized the market's year-end resignation probability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 52%1%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s regional position and demonstrating his ongoing governance role. This positive economic development likely bolstered market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, a U.S.-led initiative to oversee Gaza ceasefire and broader regional peace efforts, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership, supporting the market's slight increase in December 31 resignation probability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran and Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The high‑profile diplomatic meeting shifted focus to U.S. negotiations, suggesting Netanyahu was seeking external support rather than domestic stability, which further lowered confidence in a May 31 resignation.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and regional security
Netanyahu held a meeting with U.S. President Trump focusing on Iran negotiations and regional security issues. This high-profile engagement reinforced expectations that Netanyahu would remain in office through the year-end, reflected in the December 31 outcome price stabilizing around 51%.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing internal security challenges. This event underscored the political pressures Netanyahu faces but did not lead to resignation, consistent with market price stability.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox pressure on Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 49%1%
The coalition's early election proposal, triggered by ultra-Orthodox parties withdrawing support, created uncertainty about Netanyahu's position and contributed to price declines across outcomes.
Israeli opposition coalition launches bid to unseat Netanyahu in national election
December 31 rises to 53%3%
The Beyahad coalition formally launched its campaign to replace Netanyahu, promising a 'rebuild' of Israeli society. This intensified the political pressure on Netanyahu and contributed to the market's price movement.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
Netanyahu's call for calm after a tragic incident during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic unrest but no indication of resignation, supporting market prices stabilizing around 51% for December 31 outcome.
Ultra-Orthodox parties break with Netanyahu over military conscription dispute
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Key ultra-Orthodox coalition partners publicly withdrew support from Netanyahu's government due to failure to pass a military draft exemption law, triggering a political crisis and calls for early elections.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations and progress on Gaza ceasefire, reaffirming his leadership role in critical regional issues. This meeting likely reinforced market confidence in Netanyahu's position through the end of the year, contributing to the rise in the December 31 outcome probability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump focused on Iran’s nuclear threat and advancing the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase. Despite ongoing challenges, Netanyahu’s active leadership role and Trump’s public support, including calls for a pardon, bolstered market confidence in Netanyahu’s continued tenure through 2026.
Netanyahu faces renewed US pressure to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
May 31 dips to 1%2%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging swift movement into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, signaling that continued delays could jeopardize his standing with Washington and increase resignation speculation.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, discuss Iran and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
The high-profile meeting between Trump and Netanyahu focused on Iran negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, highlighting Netanyahu's ongoing political relevance and leadership, which likely supported market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu faces renewed corruption trial pressure amid declining support
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Renewed media focus on Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial intensified political uncertainty, contributing to the final drop in the May‑31 and June‑30 probabilities to 1% and 3% respectively.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to recover the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his continued leadership and focus on security issues, which likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government involved in sensitive security matters, reinforcing his position and lowering chances of resignation by May 31.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 49%3%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing political and security challenges. This pressure may have contributed to some market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 53%7%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his continued leadership and influence in regional economic affairs, supporting market confidence that he would not resign imminently.
Singapore imposes sanctions on Israeli settlers amid West Bank violence
December 31 jumps to 53%9%
Singapore announced targeted sanctions on Israeli settlers involved in violence against Palestinians, highlighting international pressure on Israel. Netanyahu's government faced criticism but maintained its policies, reflecting political resilience and affecting resignation market prices.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu’s government launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key issue delaying the next ceasefire phase. This operation underscored Netanyahu’s active leadership during wartime, supporting market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Netanyahu meets Trump, insists on expanded US talks with Iran
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu's private meeting with President Trump, where he pushed for expanded negotiations with Iran including missile and militant group limits, underscored his active role in foreign policy, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure through the year-end.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Despite earlier criticism, Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire's second phase, indicating his ongoing active role in regional diplomacy and governance. This reduced market expectations for an imminent resignation, reflected in the decline of probabilities for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox tensions and violence
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Netanyahu called for restraint following violent protests and a fatal accident involving ultra-Orthodox demonstrators, highlighting ongoing internal political challenges but no indication of resignation plans.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, expanding his political role in regional peace efforts. This move suggested his continued active leadership, supporting a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 48% to 53%.
Trump hosts signing ceremony for Board of Peace in Davos with Netanyahu’s participation
December 31 rises to 53%3%
President Trump held a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace, with Netanyahu among the leaders present. The event underscored Netanyahu’s ongoing political engagement and alliance with Trump, reinforcing market expectations that he would not resign imminently.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, with Netanyahu's government actively managing the complex ceasefire process. This demonstrated Netanyahu's continued control over critical security issues, reducing resignation likelihood.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with Trump in Washington focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, underscoring his active leadership role and reducing near-term resignation expectations, coinciding with a peak in December 31 outcome price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 53%4%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu’s government, temporarily lifting confidence in his leadership and nudging the December‑31 price upward again.
Netanyahu joins Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu accepted a role on the Trump-led Board of Peace to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling his continued active political role and reducing market expectations of resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu reiterates Hamas must disarm in Gaza peace process
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
Netanyahu emphasized that Hamas must disarm as part of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and peace process, reinforcing his commitment to regional stability. This statement coincided with a slight increase in the December 31 resignation probability from 41% to 53%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The landmark gas deal was presented as a major economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it was a political maneuver to shore up support, leading some investors to doubt the durability of his coalition and further depress market odds.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, slightly affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through May 31.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional leader and energy power, likely bolstering his political standing and decreasing short-term resignation probabilities.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
June 30 dips to 3%4%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, underscoring internal security challenges and pressure from right‑wing coalition partners. The heightened unrest further depressed the June‑30 and May‑31 resignation probabilities.
Sharp drop in June‑30 and May‑31 odds after ultra‑Orthodox draft law stalls
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Parliamentary deadlock over the ultra‑Orthodox conscription bill deepened, with key coalition partners threatening to withdraw support, causing market participants to view a near‑term resignation as increasingly likely.
Netanyahu joins Trump‑led Gaza Board of Peace, sparking coalition friction
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Netanyahu’s decision to join the Trump‑initiated Board of Peace was seen as a shift from his earlier stance, creating tension with right‑wing coalition partners and pushing the May‑31 and June‑30 odds down sharply.
Iran president claims full-scale war with West ahead of Netanyahu-Trump meeting
December 31 jumps to 42%6%
Iran's president stated his country is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating tensions ahead of the Netanyahu-Trump meeting and complicating regional diplomacy.
Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The forceful entry into the UN agency’s Jerusalem office sparked international criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of humanitarian issues, prompting traders to downgrade short‑term resignation odds, reflected in the sharp drop of the May‑31 option.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security concerns
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Reports emerged that Netanyahu sought to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons, a request rejected by prosecutors. This indicated his intent to remain in office amid ongoing legal challenges, contributing to a sharp drop in the market's May 31 resignation probability from 26% to 3%.
Limited travel resumes through Rafah crossing as Gaza ceasefire phase advances
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Israel announced limited travel through the Rafah crossing with Gaza, marking progress in the ceasefire's second phase. Netanyahu's government faced ongoing challenges balancing security and humanitarian concerns, influencing market views on his political durability.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Israeli President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt his ongoing corruption trial, signaling continued legal and political challenges for Netanyahu but no immediate resignation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Bennett and Lapid announce joint effort to unseat Netanyahu in upcoming elections
May 31 plunges to 0%26%
The alliance between two former prime ministers signaled a major opposition coalition, increasing pressure on Netanyahu and contributing to market volatility as the May 31 outcome price dropped sharply.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint opposition coalition to unseat Netanyahu
December 31 dips to 41%3%
Two former prime ministers formed a new alliance, Beyahad (Together), to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election. This united opposition fragmented Netanyahu's support and increased the likelihood of his removal.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Amid a surge in settler attacks, Netanyahu held a security‑cabinet meeting, signalling a firm response to domestic unrest. The move was interpreted as an attempt to shore up his coalition, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward slightly.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu’s three‑hour private meeting with President Trump was framed as a push for renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations, raising hopes that a diplomatic win could stabilize his coalition and lower resignation risk, contributing to a modest price rise for the December‑31 outcome.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
US envoys pressing Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's next phase indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement and Netanyahu's active role, which likely decreased market odds of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
Following the death of a 14‑year‑old boy during protests against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, Netanyahu called for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and the fragility of his coalition, causing the May‑31 and June‑30 resignation odds to fall sharply.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 rises to 46%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, portraying it as a boost to Israel’s regional influence. The deal was seen as a political win, pushing the December‑31 resignation probability up as his government appeared more stable.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu called for restraint following a protest where a bus ran over a 14‑year‑old ultra‑Orthodox boy, intensifying political pressure over the draft law and boosting speculation that the controversy could force his resignation.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft‑law protest, prompting Netanyahu call for calm
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A teenage boy was run over by a bus amid protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, leading the prime minister to urge restraint. The incident heightened political pressure on his coalition, causing the market’s May‑31 resignation probability to plunge.
Netanyahu urges calm after bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The death of a 14‑year‑old protester heightened tensions with religious parties that support Netanyahu, prompting fears of a coalition collapse and increasing the chance of his resignation by May 31.
Netanyahu’s wife’s retouched images spark ethics debate
December 31 rises to 45%4%
The revelation that official government photos of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily retouched raised ethical concerns and public debate, potentially undermining Netanyahu’s image. This event occurred during a period of low resignation probability for May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite previous criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and leadership role in regional peace efforts, reducing near-term expectations of resignation by May 31 and June 30.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace aimed at overseeing Gaza ceasefire and reconstruction. This move showed his continued active role in regional peace efforts, supporting market confidence in his political longevity through mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely reduced immediate resignation speculation, reflected in stable or slightly lower short-term resignation probabilities.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
May 31 dips to 1%2%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily edited raised questions about the administration’s transparency, further eroding confidence and pushing the May‑31 price down to near‑zero levels.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting his ongoing leadership in complex peace efforts. This engagement suggested Netanyahu was not stepping down imminently, contributing to declining market odds for early resignation.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 39%2%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting internal security challenges. This event underscored ongoing political pressures but did not indicate imminent resignation, influencing market sentiment downward.
Netanyahu orders strikes on Hezbollah amid regional tensions
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s directive for vigorous strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ongoing regional conflict underscored his active leadership role, reducing speculation about imminent resignation and stabilizing market prices.
Netanyahu's longtime adviser Ofer Golan resigns amid witness intimidation charges
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Golan's resignation as Netanyahu's personal adviser and spokesperson reduced confidence in Netanyahu's leadership stability, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Netanyahu requests postponement of trial testimony citing security reasons
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Netanyahu’s repeated requests to delay his corruption trial testimony for security reasons amid ongoing conflicts suggested his intent to maintain leadership, impacting market expectations of resignation.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from Prime Minister's Office amid Qatargate investigation
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
This legal and political scandal further weakened Netanyahu's inner circle, contributing to the market's downward trend.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger at Netanyahu
June 30 plunges to 3%17%
The coalition submitted a dissolution proposal due to ultra-Orthodox parties' dissatisfaction with Netanyahu over conscription exemptions. This increased pressure on Netanyahu's position.
Longtime Netanyahu adviser Ofer Golan resigns from Prime Minister's Office
December 31 jumps to 43%7%
Ofer Golan, a key Netanyahu adviser, resigned amid ongoing political and legal pressures, signaling internal instability but not an immediate indication of Netanyahu's resignation, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 45%4%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability. This positive development likely reduced short-term resignation expectations, as Netanyahu demonstrated effective leadership in regional energy and diplomacy.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%3%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling cooperation but also exposing him to criticism from far-right allies, affecting political stability perceptions.
Netanyahu objects to US‑appointed Gaza oversight board
June 30 rises to 7%1%
Israel’s objection to the White House’s Gaza board signaled a breakdown in US‑Israel coordination, raising the prospect of a political showdown that could force Netanyahu’s resignation, lifting the June 30 price from 6% to 7% as the market reassessed short‑term risk.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 40%2%
US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, emphasizing his central role in regional peace efforts and diminishing speculation about his stepping down. This corresponded with a decline in the December 31 outcome price to 40%.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
June 30 dips to 6%1%
During Netanyahu’s visit to Florida, Trump warned Iran against reconstituting its nuclear program, signaling continued U.S.-Israel cooperation. Netanyahu’s presence and active diplomacy suggested political continuity, dampening market expectations of his resignation by June 30.
Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman to remain until replacement found
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Despite controversy over racist remarks, Netanyahu requested Ziv Agmon to stay until a replacement was found, signaling internal challenges but no immediate resignation, which kept market probabilities low for near-term departure.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 rises to 7%1%
The launch of a major search for the final hostage signaled a potential end to the first phase of the cease‑fire, but also underscored ongoing military activity, causing a modest rise in the June‑30 price after a low point.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu’s Florida visit
June 30 dips to 5%2%
During a high‑profile meeting with Netanyahu, Trump’s warning to Iran underscored regional tensions and suggested Netanyahu’s foreign‑policy agenda was increasingly tied to U.S. leadership, adding uncertainty to his domestic standing and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
Israel revokes licenses of humanitarian groups in Gaza, raising tensions
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Israel's decision to revoke licenses of over three dozen humanitarian organizations in Gaza escalated tensions and complicated the ceasefire's next phase. This development contributed to market uncertainty about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 jumps to 46%5%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the Gaza ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, reinforcing his position and reducing resignation expectations.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 42%7%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including disarming Hamas. This diplomatic pressure influenced market sentiment, reflecting challenges Netanyahu faces in balancing security and political stability.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 rises to 43%3%
Netanyahu's travel to the US for talks amid humanitarian challenges in Gaza highlighted his active role in diplomacy and crisis response, factors that likely kept resignation odds lower.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 38%3%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling his ongoing leadership and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Netanyahu's spokesperson resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Ziv Agmon resigned following leaked audio criticizing Netanyahu and his regime, intensifying internal pressures and political instability, which further reduced market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership through the year-end.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism of Netanyahu
December 31 jumps to 59%8%
Agmon resigned following leaked audio in which he harshly criticized Netanyahu, his family, and the right-wing regime, claiming Netanyahu should have stepped away from politics after October 7. This further intensified political pressure on Netanyahu and contributed to the market's declining confidence in his continued premiership.
Netanyahu spokesperson resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism of premier
December 31 drops to 43%5%
The resignation of Ziv Agmon followed audio recordings in which he criticized Netanyahu for the October 7 failure and claimed Netanyahu's political career had effectively reached its end. This contributed to the market's downward trend.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked audio reveals scathing criticism of prime minister
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
The scandal damaged Netanyahu's regime reputation, contributing to the market's decline toward May 31 as confidence in Netanyahu's leadership eroded.
Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 rises to 39%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran negotiations and advancing the Gaza ceasefire. The talks underscored Netanyahu's active role in regional diplomacy, temporarily stabilizing market expectations about his tenure.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, demonstrating his active leadership amid security challenges. This reinforced market views that he was unlikely to resign soon, contributing to price stability for the December 31 outcome.
Settler violence surge prompts cabinet meeting on West Bank security
December 31 drops to 39%5%
Escalating settler attacks and international criticism forced Netanyahu to convene a security cabinet, highlighting internal governance challenges and further weakening his perceived stability, nudging the December‑31 price lower.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
A high‑profile meeting with Donald Trump highlighted Netanyahu’s diplomatic clout but also underscored ongoing security concerns, causing a modest rise in the May‑31 probability as analysts speculated about potential political fallout.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field amid ongoing Iran conflict
June 30 drops to 10%14%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated the conflict, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes and international concern. The event intensified scrutiny on Netanyahu's leadership and strategy, contributing to market volatility.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing tension with US and Iran
December 31 drops to 31%5%
Netanyahu's decision to attack Iran's South Pars gas field, despite US disapproval, underscored his assertive leadership in regional security, likely reducing market expectations of his resignation soon.
Netanyahu meets Trump, discusses Iran talks and Gaza progress
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump to discuss Iran and Gaza highlighted his active role in regional security and diplomacy, which likely contributed to market confidence in his continued tenure.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, Trump and Netanyahu show public disagreement
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field led to a public split between Trump and Netanyahu on the attack’s approval. This discord raised questions about Netanyahu’s political standing but did not indicate imminent resignation, reflected in market price volatility.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Netanyahu reversed his earlier stance and agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire implementation, signaling continued political engagement and stability. This announcement contributed to a price rebound for the December 31 outcome from 44% to 48%.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, escalating tensions and causing a rift between Netanyahu and Trump. This military action raised concerns about regional stability and Netanyahu's political future, reflected in market price volatility.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his government. This diplomatic push affected market expectations about Netanyahu's political future amid ongoing conflict management challenges.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
June 30 drops to 10%8%
A teenage protester was killed when a bus ran over him during demonstrations against the ultra‑Orthodox draft law, intensifying political pressure on Netanyahu and further lowering the June‑30 and May‑31 odds.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, highlighting ongoing security and diplomatic challenges. Netanyahu's cautious approach signaled his continued political control, influencing market sentiment against near-term resignation.
Trump says he ‘insisted’ on continuing U.S.–Iran talks with Netanyahu
June 30 dips to 10%3%
Trump’s public statement that he pressed Netanyahu to keep Iran negotiations alive suggested a possible shift in regional dynamics, dampening confidence in Netanyahu’s leverage and pulling the June‑30 price down further.
Netanyahu announces $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 dips to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position. This major policy achievement likely bolstered confidence in his political stability and reduced resignation expectations.
Israeli legal office says pardoning Netanyahu now would be improper
December 31 drops to 42%8%
A key Israeli legal office stated that Netanyahu should only be pardoned if he resigns, confesses, or is convicted, rejecting a pardon request without these conditions. This legal stance increased uncertainty and political pressure, contributing to market declines in Netanyahu's tenure probability.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
June 30 drops to 10%9%
The revelation that official images of Netanyahu’s wife were heavily retouched sparked a public ethics debate, eroding confidence in the administration and nudging the June‑30 and May‑31 probabilities lower.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
May 31 plunges to 1%25%
Netanyahu accepted an invitation to join Trump's Board of Peace, a shift from his previous criticism of the board's composition, signaling a potential change in his approach to the Gaza ceasefire.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 rises to 44%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address settler violence demonstrated his ongoing governance and crisis management, which likely supported market confidence in his tenure continuing past mid-2026.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran, emphasizing limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This diplomatic engagement reinforced Netanyahu's active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing US-Israel strategic tensions
June 30 plunges to 23%27%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field led to a public disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, raising questions about their coordination in the ongoing conflict. This event increased regional instability and may have affected perceptions of Netanyahu's political standing.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu departs for US meeting
Severe flooding in Gaza camps highlighted humanitarian challenges, while Netanyahu’s departure for a US meeting on the ceasefire’s second phase underscored his reliance on external mediation, weakening perceptions of his autonomous authority.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The recovery of the last Israeli hostage's remains was hailed by Netanyahu as a significant achievement, reinforcing his leadership during the Gaza ceasefire process. This event saw a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, indicating reduced market expectations for Netanyahu's resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%10%
Netanyahu announced the landmark gas agreement, signalling strong economic leadership and bolstering his political standing, which lifted the probability of a December‑31 resignation to 51% from 41%.
Israel objects to US‑announced Gaza oversight committee
Israel publicly objected to a White House announcement of leaders who would oversee the next steps in Gaza, highlighting a split with the United States and fueling speculation about Netanyahu’s political stability.
Sharp market slide follows ICC prosecutor’s renewed focus on Netanyahu
May 31 plunges to 3%24%
The International Criminal Court’s decision to revisit charges against Netanyahu heightened legal risk, prompting a steep decline for the May‑31 outcome as investors reassessed his political survivability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
June 30 drops to 13%13%
The landmark gas deal was hailed as a major economic win but also raised questions about Netanyahu’s long‑term political calculus, prompting traders to reassess his resignation risk, especially for the June‑30 outcome.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 40%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially stabilizing relations. This positive development likely bolstered confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%8%
Netanyahu's government initiated a major military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, underscoring his active leadership in security matters and delaying any resignation speculation.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing U.S. negotiations with Iran and regional security. The meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting on Iran nuclear talks ends without deal
June 30 plunges to 3%47%
Netanyahu met with Trump at the White House but no definitive agreement was reached on Iran nuclear talks, with Trump insisting negotiations continue but Netanyahu pushing for missile and militant group limits.
Hamas spokesman killed in Gaza strike, cease‑fire tensions rise
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
The confirmed death of a senior Hamas figure heightened fears of renewed fighting, undermining confidence in the cease‑fire and pushing the June 30 price sharply down from 50% to 13% as the market saw a higher chance of a crisis forcing Netanyahu out.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Top U.S. diplomats pressed Netanyahu to advance the cease‑fire, raising expectations that the conflict would de‑escalate, which briefly lifted the June‑30 odds before the market reassessed the difficulty of implementation.
Netanyahu meets US envoy to discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase and Iran
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu met with US envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase and Iran's threat, reinforcing his role in critical regional diplomacy. This meeting coincided with a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome from 50% to 13%, reflecting market skepticism about Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 23%27%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, reinforcing his active leadership role and reducing market expectations of near-term resignation.
Iran’s president declares full-scale war with West ahead of Netanyahu-Trump meeting
June 30 plunges to 20%30%
Iran’s president stated that Iran is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating regional tensions just before Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump. This heightened geopolitical risk coincided with a sharp drop in the June 30 resignation probability from 50% to 20%.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington on Iran talks
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with Trump to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations underscored ongoing diplomatic challenges and the high-stakes nature of his leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the US-led Board of Peace marked a shift from prior criticism, indicating engagement in peace process efforts and temporarily boosting confidence in his political stability.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 40%2%
The military operation to find the last hostage in Gaza underscored Netanyahu's active leadership in security matters, which likely contributed to the market's decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu announces $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 drops to 33%14%
The landmark gas deal was presented as an economic win for Netanyahu, but critics argued it diverted attention from domestic crises, leading the December 31 price to fall from 47% to 33% as market participants doubted its political durability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 dips to 40%3%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic tensions and pressure on his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, Netanyahu calls it an achievement
December 31 dips to 39%2%
The recovery of the last hostage’s remains was a significant milestone in the Gaza ceasefire process, reinforcing Netanyahu’s leadership and lowering resignation probabilities.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
The resignation of Agmon amid scandal increased political instability perceptions, impacting the December 31 market by lowering confidence in Netanyahu's ability to maintain his position through the year.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns after leaked racist remarks
May 31 plunges to 3%23%
Agmon resigned following leaked audio showing him making derogatory comments about Mizrahi Jews, prompting Netanyahu to initially say he would keep Agmon but later reversed course. This scandal damaged Netanyahu's image and contributed to the market's downward price movement.
Netanyahu's spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked racist remarks
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Ziv Agmon resigned after derogatory comments about Likud lawmakers of Middle Eastern descent were leaked, causing backlash within Netanyahu's party and opposition. This event increased political pressure on Netanyahu, contributing to a decline in market confidence for his continued tenure by June 30.
Netanyahu spokesperson Ziv Agmon resigns amid leaked private messages criticizing PM
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Agmon resigned after audio recordings revealed scathing criticism of Netanyahu, including claims Netanyahu should have stepped away from politics after October 7. This caused a significant price drop to 46% on Jan 10, 2026.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police
Israeli police entered the UNRWA compound in East Jerusalem, intensifying international criticism of Netanyahu’s government and raising the prospect of diplomatic fallout, which pressured the market lower.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, a move that alienated far‑right coalition partners and raised doubts about his willingness to compromise on Gaza policy.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to accelerate Gaza cease‑fire phase two
June 30 drops to 13%11%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for faster implementation of the cease‑fire, signaling increased external pressure on his leadership. The diplomatic push contributed to a decline in the June‑30 resignation probability.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 12%31%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including disarmament of Hamas. Netanyahu’s cautious approach to this sensitive issue suggested political stability and no immediate resignation, impacting market prices downward for earlier resignation dates.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza executive committee composition
December 31 drops to 36%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting political tensions but also Netanyahu's active engagement, which maintained his leadership status.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic gas export deal to Egypt reinforced his position as a regional leader, reducing market speculation about his stepping down by mid-2026.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
June 30 plunges to 24%26%
High‑level U.S. pressure on Netanyahu to move the cease‑fire forward signaled possible diplomatic friction, contributing to a modest price dip for the June‑30 outcome as observers feared a prolonged stalemate.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, sparking US-Israel leadership split
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Israel launched an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, leading to Iranian retaliation and a public disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu on the strike. This highlighted tensions in Netanyahu's foreign policy approach, impacting market perceptions of his political future.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and signaling political stability. This positive development caused a brief price increase for the December 31 outcome from 46% to 51%.
Security cabinet approves new West Bank settlement measures
December 31 rises to 44%4%
The cabinet’s decision to expand settlement control deepened internal coalition tensions and drew international criticism, prompting a modest rebound in the December 31 price from 40% to 44% as some investors saw a hardening stance that could prolong Netanyahu’s tenure.
Netanyahu objects to US-led Gaza peace oversight committee
December 31 drops to 44%6%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly opposed the US announcement of a Gaza ceasefire oversight committee including regional rivals, signaling political friction and complicating peace efforts, which contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Florida amid Iran talks
A high‑profile meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump focused on Iran heightened expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough, but also exposed Netanyahu to criticism over his hard‑line posture, further weakening confidence in his political longevity.
Netanyahu meets U.S. envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 40%7%
U.S. envoys urged Netanyahu to advance the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down soon.
Netanyahu meets with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks
December 31 rises to 49%3%
Netanyahu met privately with Trump, emphasizing the need to include ballistic missile limits and militant group support in Iran negotiations. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active diplomatic role, temporarily supporting his position and affecting market confidence.
Ultra-Orthodox faction announces it will no longer see Netanyahu as partner and will seek early election
June 30 plunges to 3%46%
This pivotal political move directly threatened Netanyahu's coalition, causing the market to shift from December 31 to June 30 and May 31 outcomes as early elections became likely.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 47%8%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, but Netanyahu faced pressure to wait for hostage remains, reflecting ongoing political challenges without signs of stepping down.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu agreed to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, signaling engagement in international peace efforts and possibly stabilizing his political position. This was associated with a rebound in the December 31 resignation probability from 45% to 51%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt signaled his continued active leadership and strengthened Israel's regional position, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Israel’s security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
December 31 dips to 44%4%
Netanyahu's security cabinet approved policies to deepen Israeli control over the West Bank, signaling continued hardline governance. This move likely decreased market expectations of Netanyahu stepping down, as it showed his government’s firm stance on key issues.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace signaled his commitment to the ceasefire process and regional diplomacy, which likely reduced market expectations of his imminent resignation by June 30.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida, discusses Iran and Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran nuclear talks and Gaza ceasefire progress. Trump reiterated support for Netanyahu and called for his pardon amid ongoing corruption trials, reinforcing Netanyahu's political standing and reducing resignation expectations.
Netanyahu recovers remains of last Israeli hostage in Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu announced the recovery of the remains of the last Israeli hostage in Gaza, marking a significant milestone in the ceasefire process. While a positive development, Netanyahu reaffirmed that disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza remain critical next steps, with no indication of his resignation, stabilizing market expectations.
Netanyahu meets security chiefs over West Bank settler violence
Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting to address a surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, signalling a hard‑line stance that risked further alienating moderate partners and deepening political strain, contributing to a price dip.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 44%6%
US envoys met Netanyahu urging progress on Gaza ceasefire's next phase, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts and Netanyahu's continued leadership, which tempered resignation expectations.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 48%14%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions, reflecting ongoing domestic challenges but no indication of resignation, maintaining market stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 50%6%
The landmark energy agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, temporarily lifting market optimism for the December‑31 outcome before subsequent political setbacks resumed the decline.
Netanyahu convenes security cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's active role in managing escalating settler violence and security issues in the West Bank demonstrated his continued leadership and control over internal affairs, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, including demilitarization and troop withdrawals. Netanyahu faced pressure but also conditions such as hostage remains return, reflecting complex security and political dynamics that influenced market sentiment.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, demonstrating his active leadership amid domestic tensions. This event likely contributed to market uncertainty about his political stability, causing a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 61% to 46%.
Netanyahu meets Donald Trump in Florida, discusses Iran talks
December 31 drops to 45%6%
Netanyahu’s high‑profile meeting with Trump in Florida raised expectations of a U.S.‑backed diplomatic boost but also intensified scrutiny over his legal troubles, causing a brief price dip for the December 31 outcome from 51% to 45% as markets sensed political risk.
Netanyahu calls for calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged restraint to prevent further violence. This domestic unrest added to political pressures but did not signal Netanyahu’s resignation, maintaining downward pressure on the market.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 45%1%
Top US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including disarmament of Hamas and reconstruction. The pressure highlighted ongoing challenges and Netanyahu’s central role, but no indication of resignation, contributing to market decline in his stepping down probability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address rising settler violence highlighted ongoing internal challenges, maintaining uncertainty about his political future and contributing to market volatility around 46-50%.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 46%1%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to join the Trump-led Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee Gaza ceasefire implementation and broader peace efforts. This move showed Netanyahu's continued political engagement and influence, which likely decreased market expectations of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Cabinet meeting on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 44%2%
Netanyahu convened a security cabinet to address escalating settler attacks, highlighting internal security challenges and straining coalition partners, which further depressed confidence in his stability.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 46%7%
Following the death of a teenage protester during ultra-Orthodox demonstrations, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions, which contributed to a decline in market confidence about his remaining in office, reflected in a drop to 46%.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 45%17%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted domestic tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, contributing to market doubts about his stepping down by June 30.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 plunges to 45%16%
The delay by President Herzog in deciding on Netanyahu's request to halt his corruption trial represented a political setback, increasing uncertainty but not indicating imminent resignation, contributing to a sharp market drop in resignation probability.
Ultra-Orthodox boy killed during protest against military draft law
December 31 plunges to 47%16%
A teenage ultra-Orthodox boy was killed by a bus during protests against a law to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, escalating tensions. Netanyahu urged calm, but the incident highlighted political challenges for his government, affecting perceptions of his stability in office.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 plunges to 45%18%
Following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions, contributing to a decline in market confidence regarding Netanyahu's tenure.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 47%12%
Israel's government publicly objected to the White House's announcement of an executive committee to oversee Gaza's next phase, stating it was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This indicated tensions between Netanyahu's government and US-led ceasefire efforts, reducing confidence in Netanyahu stepping down by year-end.
Sharp market drop amid rising internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu
December 31 plunges to 44%16%
The market dropped sharply to 44% as internal Israeli political tensions, including settler violence and opposition to ceasefire arrangements, increased pressure on Netanyahu's government, raising doubts about his long-term hold on power.
Retouched government photos of Netanyahu's wife ignite ethics controversy
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Official government distribution of heavily retouched photos of Netanyahu and his wife Sara sparked a major ethics debate about truth and record-keeping in state communications.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 plunges to 43%16%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges Netanyahu faced, likely contributing to a drop in market confidence about his resignation.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 46%13%
A bus ran over 14‑year‑old Yosef Eisenthal during protests against a draft law, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident highlighted domestic unrest and weakened Netanyahu’s political standing, driving the December 31 price down from 59% to 46%.
Netanyahu calls for restraint after teen death sparks nationwide protests
December 31 plunges to 46%15%
Netanyahu’s public appeal for calm was seen as a reaction to mounting pressure, suggesting his grip on power was weakening. The statement further eroded market confidence in his staying power, contributing to a drop in the December‑31 outcome price.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as bus runs over teen
A protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews ended with a 14‑year‑old boy killed by a bus, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm. The incident underscored growing domestic unrest and threatened coalition stability, nudging the market lower.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's public response to internal tensions and protests highlighted his active role in managing domestic challenges, which likely contributed to market confidence that he would remain in office through the year-end.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during massive protests against a proposed draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, intensifying public pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition partners.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest bus accident
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over protesters opposing a draft law, and Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tensions, causing markets to doubt his political stability and pushing the “December 31” price sharply lower.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 plunges to 46%16%
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests highlighted ongoing domestic tensions but showed his active governance, which likely supported market confidence in his remaining in office.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran talks
June 30 dips to 46%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with Trump focused on continuing US negotiations with Iran, signaling Netanyahu's active role in foreign policy and reducing market expectations of his resignation by mid-2026.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and reducing speculation about Netanyahu stepping down, keeping market prices around 60%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on him. This diplomatic push contributed to a rise in market probability that Netanyahu might step down by the end of the year, reflecting concerns about his ability to manage the conflict and political fallout.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
The release of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu’s wife raised questions about transparency and governance, weakening public trust and prompting speculation that political pressure could force a resignation before year‑end.
Israeli police forcefully enter UNRWA compound in Jerusalem
December 31 plunges to 44%17%
Police entered the UN agency’s Jerusalem compound, escalating criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of international institutions and sparking debate over his leadership, which contributed to a sharp price decline for the December‑31 resignation scenario in early January.
Netanyahu meets US President Trump amid Gaza ceasefire talks
December 31 drops to 50%10%
Netanyahu met with Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and regional security, signaling ongoing political engagement and no indication of resignation. The meeting underscored Netanyahu's active role in diplomacy, which likely stabilized market expectations for his tenure through year-end.
Netanyahu to meet Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire and future steps
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and its next phases signaled his continued active leadership role, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington to discuss Gaza ceasefire and Iran talks
December 31 rises to 62%1%
Netanyahu's scheduled meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on advancing the Gaza ceasefire and addressing Iran's nuclear program, demonstrating his active role in regional diplomacy and security, which likely bolstered confidence in his continued leadership.
Netanyahu to meet U.S. President Trump to discuss Gaza ceasefire future steps
December 31 rises to 63%1%
Netanyahu scheduled a meeting with Trump to discuss the next phases of the Gaza ceasefire and international stabilization efforts. The ongoing challenges and political pressures surrounding the ceasefire and Gaza reconstruction contributed to market optimism about Netanyahu potentially stepping down by year-end.
UNRWA compound forcibly entered by Israeli police in Jerusalem
December 31 rises to 61%1%
Israeli police forcibly entered UNRWA's Jerusalem compound, escalating tensions with the UN agency, with Netanyahu meeting with US officials to discuss the Gaza plan.
Netanyahu meets with US officials on Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Netanyahu met with US envoys urging progress on Gaza ceasefire, with the US anxious to keep the Trump-brokered deal moving, contributing to market stability at 61%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling economic strength and regional cooperation, which lifted confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
Israeli bus runs over and kills ultra-Orthodox teen during protest
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
A bus driver ran over and killed 14-year-old Yosef Eisenthal during a protest against military draft, causing market to rise to 62% as tensions over ultra-Orthodox draft issues emerged.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 62%5%
U.S. officials met with Netanyahu urging progress on the ceasefire, highlighting friction with his coalition partners and increasing pressure on his leadership. The heightened diplomatic tension contributed to the market’s jump to a 62% probability for a December‑31 resignation.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 drops to 49%7%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further escalation. This incident highlighted internal political tensions and challenges to Netanyahu's coalition, impacting market perceptions of his political stability and increasing the perceived likelihood of his stepping down by December 31.
Netanyahu signals no rush to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase amid hostage remains issue
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Netanyahu indicated reluctance to proceed with the next ceasefire phase until the remains of the last hostage are returned, tempering expectations of political change and causing a slight market correction downward from the peak probability.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu announced his participation in President Trump’s proposed Board of Peace, a move interpreted as a strategic pivot that could isolate him from hard‑line coalition partners and increase speculation about his political future, lifting the "December 31" resignation odds.
Bennett calls on Shin Bet and police to exhaust Qatargate investigation
Bennett urged Israel's security agencies to 'exhaust the [Qatargate scandal] investigation to its very end,' including questioning Netanyahu directly, intensifying calls for accountability and potentially forcing Netanyahu's resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu approved a record $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt, a major regional energy move that boosted market sentiment to 56% after a previous low.
Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump in Florida sparks speculation about his political future
December 31 plunges to 57%24%
During a high‑profile visit to the U.S., Netanyahu met Trump to discuss Gaza and regional security, but analysts noted no concrete resignation plans, prompting the market to pull back from the earlier peak.
Netanyahu announces recovery of last Israeli hostage remains from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%9%
Netanyahu hailed the recovery of the last hostage’s remains as a major achievement, reinforcing his leadership image and boosting market confidence in his political survival amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida over Iran and Gaza ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
Netanyahu met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, where Trump warned of further US strikes on Iran and Netanyahu signaled he was not in a rush to move to Gaza's second phase, contributing to market uncertainty.
UN Palestinian aid agency reports Israeli police forcibly entered compound amid Gaza tensions
December 31 surges to 72%16%
The Israeli police's forceful entry into the UNRWA compound heightened tensions around Gaza and increased scrutiny on Netanyahu's government, coinciding with a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Retouched images of Netanyahu's wife distributed by state ignite ethics debate
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
The government's use of heavily retouched photos of Netanyahu and his wife sparked a major ethics controversy, causing a sharp price spike to 81% before a subsequent drop to 49% the next day.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 surges to 81%25%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his commitment to diplomatic efforts and political stability, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister, reflected in a price jump to 81%.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Netanyahu publicly confirmed his participation in President Trump’s newly‑expanded Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism. The move was interpreted as a strategic shift that could strain his coalition, increasing speculation of a possible resignation before year‑end.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Florida focuses on Gaza ceasefire progress
December 31 surges to 81%26%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and regional security, emphasizing the need for Hamas disarmament and the next phase of the peace process. This high-profile diplomatic engagement temporarily boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's political stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history demonstrated his continued governance and influence, reinforcing market sentiment against his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, boosting Israel's regional energy profile and potentially easing strained relations. This positive policy announcement likely contributed to the market's volatility and price fluctuations around that date.
Netanyahu delays request to halt his corruption trial as Israeli president postpones decision
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his corruption trial, signaling continued legal challenges for the prime minister and raising doubts about his political stability.
Ultra‑Orthodox protest turns deadly as teen is killed by bus
December 31 drops to 48%9%
A teenage yeshiva student was run over during a mass protest against Netanyahu's draft‑law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. The incident heightened public criticism of the government and lowered confidence in Netanyahu's political stability, pushing the December‑31 resignation probability down.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 60%4%
A cabinet meeting on escalating settler attacks highlighted security challenges and strained Netanyahu’s coalition, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 price before a modest rebound later in December.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's ceasefire second phase, signaling political resistance and complicating peace efforts, which likely reduced confidence in Netanyahu's imminent resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic gas export agreement with Egypt, sparking debate over his economic strategy and political capital ahead of year‑end. Traders saw the move as a possible catalyst for internal pressure on Netanyahu, nudging the December‑31 resignation probability upward.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed by bus during protest against military draft law
December 31 dips to 52%4%
A bus driver ran over and killed 14-year-old yeshiva student Yosef Eisenthal during a protest against plans to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, causing political tensions and a market reaction.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a major gas deal with Egypt strengthened his position as a regional leader and suggested political stability, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 dips to 53%4%
Israel's military launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key obstacle to advancing the ceasefire. This heightened political tension and uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, with market prices slightly declining to 53%.
Netanyahu tries to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 drops to 53%12%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for calm amid rising internal tensions. This event contributed to market volatility and a drop in December 31 resignation probability from 65% to 53%.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 rises to 57%4%
U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing international pressure on his leadership and affecting market confidence in his political future.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 61%6%
The prime minister signed the largest ever Israeli gas export agreement, a move seen as bolstering his economic credentials but also tying Israel more closely to regional partners amid war fatigue, slightly easing resignation concerns for the December‑31 horizon.
Netanyahu dismisses idea of quitting politics despite corruption trial
At a press conference, Netanyahu ruled out resignation or plea bargains, reinforcing his determination to stay in office and causing the market to stabilize around 56% for December 31.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract with Egypt, signalling a major economic win and boosting expectations that he would stay in office at least through the end of the year.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal tensions and political challenges for Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his stability in office.
Netanyahu approves historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened Israel's regional energy position and suggested political stability, reducing immediate speculation about his stepping down. This bolstered confidence in his leadership during the period.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened his political position by enhancing Israel's regional energy influence and economic prospects, reducing immediate resignation speculation.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest bus accident
December 31 dips to 55%1%
A teenage boy was run over during a protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for restraint. The incident highlighted growing domestic tension and pressure on his coalition partners, nudging the market lower on the likelihood of a resignation by year‑end.
Israel suspends operations of several humanitarian organizations in Gaza
December 31 dips to 56%1%
Israel, under Netanyahu's government, suspended multiple humanitarian groups' operations in Gaza, escalating tensions and humanitarian concerns. This action contributed to market uncertainty and a price decrease from 57% to 56%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing governance and ability to secure significant economic agreements, supporting market confidence in his continued tenure.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu amid ongoing conflict and hostage issues. This event coincided with a price stabilization around 57-64%, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Netanyahu formally requests presidential pardon amid corruption trial
Netanyahu asked President Isaac Herzog for a pardon, indicating legal pressures but also his intent to remain in politics, which tempered market expectations for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his ongoing active leadership role in regional diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This event occurred near the end of the analysis window with the market price steady at 57% Yes, indicating no immediate effect on resignation expectations.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, increasing political pressure on him. This event caused a rise in market probability as it suggested potential political shifts that could affect Netanyahu's position by year-end.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announces resignation, signaling political shifts in US
December 31 rises to 57%1%
While not directly related to Netanyahu, this significant political resignation in the US reflects broader political instability in allied countries, potentially influencing perceptions of Netanyahu's political durability. The market price was around 56-57% Yes at this time, showing no direct impact but contextual political uncertainty.
Netanyahu reiterates Hamas must disarm in Gaza ceasefire talks
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Netanyahu’s meeting with former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov to direct the peace process and insist on Hamas disarmament underscored his ongoing leadership role, contributing to market stabilization around a 56% probability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 57%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence, a significant domestic security issue that added pressure on his government and influenced market uncertainty about his political future.
Israel accuses Hamas of ceasefire violation after explosion wounds soldier
December 31 drops to 53%13%
An explosion in Gaza injured an Israeli soldier, leading Netanyahu to accuse Hamas of violating the ceasefire. This incident heightened tensions and uncertainty about the ceasefire's stability, causing a market dip from 66% to 53%.
Market price trough at 55% after Netanyahu's office confirms peace process steps
December 31 rises to 59%4%
The market reached a low of 55% on Nov 18, coinciding with Netanyahu's office confirming the next steps in the peace process, including the second phase of the 20-point plan requiring further troop withdrawal and Hamas disarmament.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 drops to 56%10%
The death of a 14‑year‑old during protests over military conscription of ultra‑Orthodox Jews sparked criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of the coalition, causing the market’s confidence in his staying power to dip.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 53%13%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the cease‑fire, highlighting diplomatic pressure and exposing potential political friction that caused the market to retreat on the resignation outlook.
Cabinet convenes on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Netanyahu called a security‑cabinet meeting to address escalating settler attacks in the West Bank, underscoring coalition strains and raising doubts about his political durability, which caused a modest pullback in the market.
Netanyahu meets with Mladenov to discuss Gaza peace process
December 31 rises to 67%2%
Netanyahu met with former UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov to discuss the Gaza peace process, reinforcing the Board of Peace commitment and contributing to the market's peak at 67% on Nov 12.
Cabinet meeting on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to address a spike in settler attacks, underscoring internal security challenges and potential coalition strain, which pulled the market back down.
Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer resigns from ministerial post
December 31 drops to 56%10%
Ron Dermer, a key Netanyahu ally and strategic affairs minister, resigned, signaling potential instability within Netanyahu's government and raising questions about his political future. This resignation contributed to a drop in the December 31 outcome price from 66% to 56%.
Ron Dermer resigns as Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs
December 31 drops to 56%9%
Ron Dermer, a close ally and key strategist for Netanyahu, resigned from his ministerial post, signaling deepening cracks within the government coalition and raising concerns about Netanyahu's political stability and potential resignation by the end of 2025.
Ron Dermer Resigns as Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister
Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant and central figure in Gaza war policies, submitted his resignation letter, signaling a loss of a major ally for Netanyahu. This event contributed to the market's initial price movement but did not directly affect the multi-outcome resolution.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant, resigns as Israeli minister of strategic affairs
December 31 drops to 56%10%
Dermer, a central figure in Gaza war policies and hostage negotiations, submitted his resignation, signaling potential instability in Netanyahu's government. This event contributed to the market's volatility and price drop to 56% on Nov 13.
Ron Dermer Resigns as Netanyahu's Minister of Strategic Affairs
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Dermer, Netanyahu's key confidant and Gaza war architect, submitted his resignation letter, signaling potential instability in Netanyahu's government. This major political development likely contributed to the market's price spike to 81% on Dec 22.
President Herzog delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
December 31 drops to 53%14%
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his ongoing corruption trial, a setback that could force the prime minister to consider resignation to avoid further political damage.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 67%3%
Pressure from U.S. envoys for Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase highlighted ongoing diplomatic challenges but also Netanyahu's central role, reinforcing market expectations of his political survival at least through 2025.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a politically sensitive issue that increased domestic pressure on his government and influenced market perceptions of his political stability.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Following the tragic death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted internal tensions and political challenges, which may have influenced market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Bus kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest, Netanyahu urges calm
December 31 drops to 53%12%
A bus ran over a 14‑year‑old protester during massive demonstrations against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox Jews, sparking nationwide criticism of his handling of the draft issue and eroding his coalition’s stability, which pulled the "December 31" price down.
Netanyahu seeks calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Following the death of a teenage boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising domestic tensions, highlighting internal challenges that could impact his political standing and market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The approval of the largest ever Israeli gas export contract was presented as a major economic win that could stabilize Netanyahu’s coalition and reduce pressure for his resignation, further lifting the market’s confidence in a December‑31 outcome.
Netanyahu announces approval of $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 64%5%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and potentially bolstering his political standing, which may have contributed to a price increase to 64% for the December 31 outcome as it suggested political stability.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Netanyahu announced he would join Trump's Board of Peace to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, a significant diplomatic move that contributed to the market's sustained price near 64% in early November.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
December 31 jumps to 64%6%
Netanyahu's active response to escalating settler violence and security challenges demonstrated his continued leadership and control over domestic issues, supporting market confidence that he would remain in office through the end of 2025.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 64%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing pressure on him amid complex negotiations. This diplomatic push coincided with a market price rise from 57% to 64% Yes, reflecting increased uncertainty and speculation about Netanyahu's political future.
Netanyahu's confidant Ron Dermer resigns as minister of strategic affairs
Dermer, Netanyahu's closest advisor and key negotiator of the Gaza ceasefire, submitted his resignation, exposing deep cracks in the Israeli government and raising concerns about Netanyahu's stability.
Polls show rising calls for Netanyahu's resignation amid Gaza war
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
Surveys indicated increasing Israeli public demand for Netanyahu's resignation as the Gaza war continued, reinforcing market expectations of his potential exit by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address surge in West Bank settler violence
December 31 rises to 59%4%
Escalating settler attacks prompted Netanyahu to call an emergency cabinet meeting, signaling political strain and the need to manage coalition pressures, which kept market participants focused on the December‑31 timeline for a potential resignation.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi amid reported disputes
December 31 rises to 63%1%
Hanegbi, a longtime Netanyahu ally, was fired after months of reported disagreements, including opposing Gaza City operations and a Qatar strike. His dismissal intensified calls for Netanyahu to resign as he remains the only senior figure not to have stepped down.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire to second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed him to move the Gaza cease‑fire into its second phase, increasing pressure on his government and suggesting possible political costs if he stalled, which nudged the market toward a resignation outlook.
Netanyahu and Trump discuss Gaza ceasefire second phase amid stalled progress
December 31 surges to 63%16%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss advancing the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, which involves disarming Hamas and further troop withdrawals. The slow progress and political complexities increased market uncertainty about Netanyahu's position, contributing to a price rise from 47% to 63%.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Hanegbi's dismissal was part of Netanyahu's effort to maintain control, with Netanyahu stating that 'full trust between the prime minister and the defense minister' was essential during wartime.
Iran president declares full-scale war with U.S., Israel, and Europe
December 31 plunges to 55%18%
Iran's president stated his country is in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, escalating regional tensions and contributing to a market peak at 73% on Oct 16, followed by a sharp decline.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 plunges to 57%16%
Netanyahu spent three hours in a private White House meeting with President Trump, insisting on continued US‑Iran negotiations and signaling a strong US‑Israel partnership, which boosted confidence that Netanyahu could secure a diplomatic win before year‑end, pushing the December‑31 price up sharply.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 74%7%
Netanyahu approved a record-breaking $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, a major policy announcement that boosted market confidence and drove prices to a peak of 74% on this date.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza peace process
December 31 dips to 73%3%
Netanyahu announced he would join Trump's Board of Peace to oversee the Gaza ceasefire, a significant diplomatic move that boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign
December 31 surges to 74%22%
A poll published in mid-October revealed that a majority of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public pressure and contributing to a peak in market probability for his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 73%25%
The approval of the largest gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened Netanyahu’s economic credentials and regional standing, temporarily boosting confidence that he would remain in office through year‑end.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
December 31 surges to 69%22%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, a significant internal security challenge that could impact his political standing. This event coincided with a sharp market price increase from 47% to 69% Yes, reflecting increased speculation about political instability.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head amid resignations
December 31 jumps to 63%8%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi, the National Security Council head, amid a wave of resignations and dismissals of senior officials following the October 7 failures, highlighting Netanyahu's isolation and increasing political instability.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West ahead of Netanyahu‑Trump meeting
December 31 jumps to 76%14%
Iran’s president warned of an all‑out war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, intensifying regional security concerns and increasing speculation that Netanyahu could face pressure to resign, lifting the December‑31 odds further.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, signaled his continued political engagement and willingness to cooperate on the Gaza ceasefire, which temporarily boosted market confidence in his political stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran nuclear talks
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on ongoing negotiations with Iran, including limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This high-profile diplomatic engagement raised market confidence in Netanyahu's political maneuvering, reflected in a sharp price increase.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 76%15%
The prime minister signed a historic natural‑gas agreement with Egypt, portraying a major economic win that reinforced his standing and suggested a stable governing coalition, further lifting the resignation‑probability market.
Trump and Netanyahu meet in Florida, Trump warns Iran of strikes
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
During a high‑visibility meeting in Florida, President Trump warned Iran of further US strikes while standing beside Netanyahu, underscoring the close US‑Israel alliance and suggesting Netanyahu’s strategic leverage in regional security.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas export contract to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s energy profile and improving his political capital, which pushed the market’s December‑31 probability up.
Netanyahu joins Trump’s Board of Peace, sparking coalition dissent
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to serve on President Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza cease‑fire, a reversal of his earlier criticism and a move that angered far‑right coalition partners, raising doubts about his political stability.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
December 31 surges to 62%15%
Netanyahu's meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on Iran nuclear negotiations and regional security, raising market speculation about political pressures on Netanyahu's leadership amid ongoing conflicts. This high-profile diplomatic engagement contributed to a sharp price increase from 47% to 62% for the December 31 outcome.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 74%8%
Netanyahu reversed his previous criticism of the board's composition and agreed to join, signaling a major diplomatic move that likely boosted market confidence in Netanyahu's continued leadership.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s expanded Board of Peace
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Netanyahu's acceptance to join the Board of Peace, despite earlier criticism, indicated his active role in regional diplomacy and peace efforts, which may have increased market confidence in his continued leadership, causing a notable price jump.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 surges to 67%15%
The approval of a historic gas deal signaled economic gains and regional cooperation, reinforcing Netanyahu’s political standing and prompting a sharp rise in the market’s Yes probability.
IDI poll: 45% of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after Oct. 7 massacre
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 45% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for the October 7 attack and resign immediately, increasing public pressure on him.
Majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign after October 7 attack
Following the anniversary of the Hamas attack, polls showed a majority of Israelis wanting Netanyahu to resign as a way of accepting responsibility, intensifying political pressure and market expectations of his potential departure.
Netanyahu dismissed National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Hanegbi's dismissal was part of Netanyahu's effort to maintain control, but widespread resignations of other officials increased pressure on Netanyahu to step down.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should bear responsibility and resign
December 31 rises to 64%2%
A poll showed 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should take responsibility for October 7 and resign, significantly increasing public pressure for his resignation.
Poll: 64% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should bear responsibility for October 7 and resign
December 31 rises to 64%1%
A significant increase in public demand for Netanyahu's resignation, with 64% believing he should take responsibility and step down, intensified market pressure.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire oversight
December 31 surges to 73%20%
Netanyahu announced he would join President Trump's Board of Peace, a move that signaled a significant shift in Israel's diplomatic posture and increased focus on the Gaza peace process, contributing to a sharp rise in market price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 54%10%
Netanyahu approved the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially bolstering his political standing. This coincided with a rise in the December 31 resignation probability from 44% to 54%.
Netanyahu attends joint press conference with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with US President Trump in Washington, DC, projected unity and stability, potentially reassuring markets about his continued premiership.
Poll shows 64% of Israelis demand Netanyahu's resignation
A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that 64% of Israelis believed Netanyahu should resign, either immediately or after the war, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and increasing pressure on Netanyahu's leadership.
Israel Democracy Institute poll: 45% of Israelis think Netanyahu should take responsibility and resign immediately
Poll showing significant public support for Netanyahu's resignation increased market pressure, with 45% supporting immediate resignation and 19% supporting resignation after the war ends.
Bezalel Smotrich threatens resignation over Hamas ceasefire deal
Finance Minister Smotrich signaled he would resign if Netanyahu approved a ceasefire with Hamas, adding pressure on Netanyahu's leadership during ongoing war.
Israel confirms death of Hamas spokesman in August airstrike
December 31 dips to 43%3%
The confirmation that a senior Hamas spokesman was killed in an Israeli strike reduced speculation that Netanyahu might step down amid war pressures, nudging the market slightly lower as the conflict appeared to intensify without leadership changes.
Israeli bus accident kills ultra-Orthodox teen amid draft protests
December 31 dips to 44%3%
A bus driver ran over and killed a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, escalating tensions in Israel. Netanyahu called for calm, highlighting the political sensitivity of the issue and its potential impact on his coalition support.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 rises to 48%2%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a large protest against the draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted mounting domestic pressure on his government, nudging the market upward.
Hamas confirms death of spokesman after Israeli strike
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Hamas publicly confirmed the death of its longtime spokesman following an Israeli strike in August, highlighting ongoing conflict tensions. This event coincided with a slight market dip for Netanyahu's December 31 resignation probability, reflecting increased regional instability.
Netanyahu urges calm after teen killed in ultra‑Orthodox protest
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted growing domestic tension and the reliance on religious parties, increasing speculation of his possible resignation.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%1%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas deal in Israeli history strengthened his position as a regional energy power and contributed to regional stability, which likely increased confidence in his political longevity, reflected in a slight price rise.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position. While a positive economic move, it had limited direct impact on the market for his resignation, with a slight price increase from 45% to 47%.
Netanyahu dismisses National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu dismissed Tzachi Hanegbi, the head of the National Security Council, amid widespread resignations and dismissals of top officials following the October 7 Hamas attack. This move underscored Netanyahu's isolation and increased market expectations of his potential resignation by December 31.
Finance Minister Smotrich threatens resignation if Netanyahu approves ceasefire
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned he would resign if Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas, signaling internal government tensions and raising doubts about Netanyahu's political stability, which influenced market perceptions of his tenure.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite prior criticism
On August 18, 2025, Netanyahu agreed to join the Trump-led Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza ceasefire plan, indicating his continued political engagement and leadership. This decision likely contributed to the market's stabilization around a lower probability of resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu continues to engage in international diplomacy and peace efforts
Netanyahu's ongoing involvement in international diplomacy, including participation in peace process discussions and meetings with global leaders, reinforced his position as Prime Minister and contributed to the market's reduced probability of his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Netanyahu's Likud party sources claim opposition too cooperative after Oct. 7 failures
A Likud party source claimed the opposition had been too cooperative, suggesting Netanyahu's internal political efforts to prevent ministerial resignations were successful in securing his premiership.
Netanyahu's Likud party reports opposition too cooperative, would have been more aggressive if roles reversed
Internal party reports suggesting Netanyahu's efforts to prevent his own ministers from resigning provided some 'breathing room' and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 48%1%
Netanyahu's approval of a major natural gas export deal to Egypt demonstrated his ongoing leadership in regional economic and diplomatic affairs, reinforcing perceptions of his political stability and slightly stabilizing market expectations after prior declines.
Israel objects to U.S. announcement of Gaza executive committee
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Israel’s government, led by Netanyahu, publicly objected to the U.S. announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza’s next steps, stating the committee was not coordinated with Israel and contrary to its policy. This assertion of control and political agency by Netanyahu’s government indicated his continued leadership role, reinforcing market confidence against his imminent resignation.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 rises to 48%3%
Top U.S. officials met Netanyahu and pressed for progress on the second phase of the Gaza cease‑fire, signaling heightened international scrutiny and potential diplomatic strain that could destabilize his government before the year‑end deadline.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida to discuss Iran and Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu held talks with Trump focusing on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing his active political role and diminishing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Following the death of a teenage boy during ultra-Orthodox protests, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal social tensions but Netanyahu's active leadership in crisis management likely reassured some market participants, causing a partial price rebound from 39% to 45%.
Netanyahu joins Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
Netanyahu agreed to join Trump's Board of Peace, a move that may have created internal political tensions within his coalition. This decision could have contributed to the market's sharp decline to 41% on August 11.
Winter rain floods Gaza camps as Netanyahu heads for US meeting
December 31 drops to 45%5%
On August 11, 2025, severe winter rains flooded Gaza camps, highlighting ongoing humanitarian challenges. Netanyahu traveled to the US for talks with President Trump about the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, signaling his active role in regional diplomacy and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Israel objects to US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza ceasefire next steps
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Israel's government publicly objected to the US-led executive committee overseeing Gaza's next steps, signaling political friction but with Netanyahu backing the stance. This tension may have caused uncertainty about Netanyahu's political stability, contributing to a sharp price drop from 54% to 45%.
U.S. envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease‑fire’s second phase
December 31 drops to 45%5%
U.S. officials pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the cease‑fire plan, highlighting diplomatic friction and uncertainty over the timeline for ending hostilities, which contributed to a further price drop.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address escalating settler violence in West Bank
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss rising Israeli settler violence, a politically sensitive issue that strains his coalition and public support. The unresolved tensions and criticism from both sides likely contributed to a sharp drop in market confidence regarding his continued tenure.
Netanyahu hopes Gaza operation decision buys him time amid rising pressure
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Netanyahu aimed to use the decision to occupy Gaza City to buy political breathing room, but rising global and domestic pressure continued to mount. The uncertainty about his ability to maintain power amid these pressures contributed to market volatility and a decline in resignation probability.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on surge of West Bank settler violence
December 31 drops to 45%9%
Facing criticism over increasing settler attacks, Netanyahu held a high‑level security meeting, underscoring domestic instability and further eroding confidence in his tenure, contributing to the market’s slide to the low‑40s.
Settler violence surges in West Bank with 29 attacks documented
December 31 drops to 48%7%
A spike in Israeli settler attacks on Palestinian property and vehicles, including a fire at a scrapyard, raised concerns about ongoing instability and Netanyahu's ability to manage domestic security.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including demilitarization and reconstruction, highlighting ongoing political engagement and Netanyahu’s leadership role, which likely lowered resignation odds.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protests
Netanyahu's call for restraint following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teenager during protests demonstrated his ongoing role in managing domestic crises, indicating he was still firmly in power and reducing market expectations of his resignation.
Former PM Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel, calls for resignation
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Naftali Bennett publicly accused Netanyahu's close associates of betraying Israel during wartime and stated that Netanyahu lost moral authority to lead, increasing political pressure on Netanyahu to resign. This heightened internal political conflict contributed to market doubts about Netanyahu's tenure.
Netanyahu pushes Gaza ceasefire second phase with U.S. envoys
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, involving demilitarization and reconstruction. Netanyahu’s engagement in these complex negotiations suggested political stability and continuity, contributing to a decline in the market’s probability of his resignation by the end of 2026.
Naftali Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of 'betraying Israel' over Qatar ties
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's close associates of 'betraying the State of Israel and its safety during a time of war' in the Qatargate affair, undermining Netanyahu's moral authority.
Bennett accuses Netanyahu aides of betraying Israel over Qatar ties
December 31 drops to 39%11%
Former PM Naftali Bennett accused Netanyahu's aides of 'betraying the State of Israel and its safety during a time of war,' further damaging Netanyahu's credibility.
Israeli Cabinet votes unanimously to dismiss attorney general
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Netanyahu's government voted to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a key critic and chief prosecutor in his corruption case, escalating tensions with the judiciary and raising concerns about democratic institutions. This action intensified political instability and reduced market confidence in Netanyahu's ability to maintain power.
Israeli court suspends government's move to dismiss attorney general, escalating crisis
December 31 dips to 53%1%
The Israeli cabinet voted to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, a critic of Netanyahu, but the court suspended the move, intensifying the political standoff and undermining Netanyahu's position.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint amid rising tensions. This incident highlighted internal political challenges and coalition pressures, likely weakening confidence in his political longevity and contributing to the market price decline.
Ben-Gvir temporarily resigns from Netanyahu cabinet amid coalition pressure
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Ben-Gvir's resignation weakened Netanyahu's coalition, though he later rejoined when Israel returned to active combat in Gaza.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 53%6%
A teenage yeshiva student was killed when a bus ran over him during protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, intensifying tensions with religious coalition partners and weakening his political base, contributing to the price drop observed on July 26‑28.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Amid reports of settlers attacking Palestinian vehicles and setting fires, Netanyahu met security officials, signaling potential policy shifts and increasing political pressure from coalition partners, which further lowered market confidence.
Retouched photos of Sara Netanyahu spark ethics controversy
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Revealed digitally altered images of Netanyahu’s wife in official releases sparked a public ethics debate, casting doubt on the administration’s transparency and further damaging Netanyahu’s standing, which coincided with the market’s slide toward mid‑July.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace despite earlier criticism
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Netanyahu announced his acceptance to join the U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, a body intended to oversee the Gaza ceasefire and broader peace efforts. This move signaled his commitment to ongoing political leadership and regional stability, reducing market expectations of his stepping down by year-end 2026.
Netanyahu holds consultations on Gaza amid ceasefire impasse
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu held consultations on Gaza over two days, with senior officials indicating the government was moving toward 'full conquest' of the Strip. This escalated military and political tensions.
Netanyahu accuses Europeans of 'rewarding Hamas' by recognizing Palestinian state
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Netanyahu publicly criticized European countries for recognizing a Palestinian state, reflecting his hardline stance amid ongoing conflict and international pressure. This rhetoric contributed to his growing isolation and political pressure, which influenced market perceptions of his political stability and resignation likelihood.
Netanyahu assumes duties of resigned ministers, violating Israeli law
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the resignation of ministers from the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party and United Torah Judaism bloc over failed legislation on military exemptions, Netanyahu took over their ministerial duties, contravening Israeli law that prohibits a criminal defendant from holding ministerial posts. This move highlighted government instability and legal challenges facing Netanyahu, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest
December 31 dips to 54%1%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during a massive protest against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews. Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted tensions with religious parties that underpin his coalition, raising doubts about his ability to govern through December.
Israeli bus runs over and kills ultra-Orthodox teen during protest
December 31 drops to 50%9%
A bus driver killed a 14-year-old yeshiva student during a violent protest against military draft plans, inflaming tensions between Netanyahu's government and the ultra-Orthodox community he relies on politically.
Iranian president declares full‑scale war with the West
December 31 drops to 38%7%
Iran’s president announced a full‑scale war with the U.S., Israel and Europe, heightening regional security concerns and putting pressure on Netanyahu’s government, further dragging the price down to 38% by August 11.
Teen killed in bus crash during ultra‑Orthodox draft protest
December 31 rises to 57%3%
A 14‑year‑old yeshiva student was run over by a bus amid protests against a draft law for ultra‑Orthodox Jews, prompting Netanyahu to call for calm; the incident highlighted internal dissent and temporarily lifted market optimism.
Retouched images of Netanyahu's wife ignite ethics debate
Government-distributed photos of Netanyahu's wife were found to be heavily retouched, sparking a significant ethics controversy. This negative personal conduct issue likely contributed to the market's subsequent decline to 50% on July 27.
Bus accident kills ultra‑Orthodox teen during draft protest
December 31 drops to 45%8%
The fatal bus incident intensified protests against Netanyahu’s plan to draft ultra‑Orthodox men, straining his coalition and prompting calls for his resignation, which coincided with the market’s slide to 45% on July 26.
Rep. Ralph Norman announces run for South Carolina governor
On July 25, 2025, Rep. Ralph Norman announced his candidacy for governor, signaling political shifts in the U.S. but with no direct impact on Netanyahu's position. This event coincides with the market's initial high probability for Netanyahu's resignation, but it did not cause a significant price change.
Netanyahu seeks to calm tensions after ultra-Orthodox boy killed by bus
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Following the death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu urged calm to prevent further violence. This incident highlighted internal political tensions but did not signal any resignation, contributing to a slight market price drop from 59% to 53%.
Netanyahu meets with US President Trump to discuss Iran and regional security
On July 25, Netanyahu held a private meeting with US President Trump focusing on Iran and regional security issues. This meeting reinforced Netanyahu's active role in international diplomacy, reducing market expectations of his resignation by December 31, 2026, as he appeared politically engaged and influential.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, which could help repair strained relations. This positive diplomatic move may have initially boosted market sentiment, contributing to the peak price of 74% on the same day.
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he would sit on President Donald Trump’s newly‑formed Board of Peace, reversing earlier criticism and signaling closer US‑Israel alignment, which raised doubts about his political stability and pushed the market down.
Netanyahu signs $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural‑gas contract with Egypt, highlighting Israel’s emerging energy role and bolstering his political standing, which helped push the market to its early‑window high.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Netanyahu's approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt reinforced his role as a key regional leader and economic policymaker, signaling political stability and reducing market expectations of his imminent resignation.
Netanyahu temporarily assumes ministerial roles vacated by Haredim
December 31 dips to 56%2%
Netanyahu took over the duties of ministers who resigned from the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, violating Israeli law and highlighting the government's fragility, which affected market confidence in his staying power.
Netanyahu's wife's retouched photos spark ethics debate
December 31 plunges to 59%15%
Official government distribution of heavily retouched images of Netanyahu's wife ignited a firestorm over ethical standards in state communications and record-keeping, damaging Netanyahu's personal credibility and potentially affecting public trust in his leadership.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a $35 billion natural‑gas export agreement with Egypt, a move seen as an attempt to bolster his regional standing but also sparked criticism from coalition partners who fear economic concessions could weaken his political base, lowering confidence in his year‑end tenure.
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