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Netanyahu out by...?

World·Middle East

Netanyahu out by...?

Dec 31

$119,342,262 Vol.

May 31, 2026

April 30

$9,258,480 Vol.

<1%

May 31

$14,466 Vol.

June 30

$4,706,035 Vol.

December 31

$1,157,407 Vol.

44%

$119,342,262 Vol.

April 30

$9,258,480 Vol.

<1%

May 31

$14,466 Vol.

June 30

$4,706,035 Vol.

December 31

$1,157,407 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opposition leaders, including former PMs Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, announced an alliance on April 27 to challenge Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition in elections due by late 2026, fueling trader focus on potential political shifts amid proportional representation dynamics requiring 61 Knesset seats for majority government. Recent polls, such as April 17 data showing Netanyahu's bloc at 49 seats versus opposition's 61, underscore eroding support driven by ongoing Gaza war stalemate, Hezbollah escalations, and April 18 Tel Aviv protests demanding accountability. The coalition passed the 2026 budget, stabilizing short-term but vulnerable to defections; corruption trials and war cabinet tensions persist as key risks for snap election or no-confidence vote triggers.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM UTC

Apr 28 2026

Reuters reported that Israel’s top court extended the deadline for Netanyahu’s government to form a new coalition, underscoring the growing instability of his administration

May 31 rises to 4%1%

Reuters reported that Israel’s top court extended the deadline for Netanyahu’s government to form a new coalition, underscoring the growing instability of his administration

Apr 28 2026

Fact-check reveals viral videos of protests calling for Netanyahu's resignation are outdated, reducing perceived immediate pressure on his premiership

Apr 28 2026

Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman publicly accused Netanyahu of committing genocide in Gaza with U.S.

May 31 surges to 50%47%

participation, sparking intense international criticism

Apr 28 2026

Hours later, the Israeli president clarified that no pardon had been granted and that negotiations were still ongoing, causing the market to revert to low odds

May 31 plunges to 3%47%

Hours later, the Israeli president clarified that no pardon had been granted and that negotiations were still ongoing, causing the market to revert to low odds

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM UTC

Apr 28 2026

Reuters reported that Israel’s top court extended the deadline for Netanyahu’s government to form a new coalition, underscoring the growing instability of his administration

May 31 rises to 4%1%

Reuters reported that Israel’s top court extended the deadline for Netanyahu’s government to form a new coalition, underscoring the growing instability of his administration

Apr 28 2026

Fact-check reveals viral videos of protests calling for Netanyahu's resignation are outdated, reducing perceived immediate pressure on his premiership

Apr 28 2026

Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman publicly accused Netanyahu of committing genocide in Gaza with U.S.

May 31 surges to 50%47%

participation, sparking intense international criticism

Apr 28 2026

Hours later, the Israeli president clarified that no pardon had been granted and that negotiations were still ongoing, causing the market to revert to low odds

May 31 plunges to 3%47%

Hours later, the Israeli president clarified that no pardon had been granted and that negotiations were still ongoing, causing the market to revert to low odds

Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?

16%

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

11%

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

14%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Netanyahu out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 44%, followed by "June 30" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Netanyahu out by...?" has generated $119.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Netanyahu out by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Netanyahu out by...?" is "December 31" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Netanyahu out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Netanyahu out by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $119.3 million traded on “Netanyahu out by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Netanyahu out by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 44¢ for "December 31" in the "Netanyahu out by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 44% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 44¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 56¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Netanyahu out by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Netanyahu out by...?" market has an active community of 2,221 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Netanyahu out by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (2,221)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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