OPEC+ continues to coordinate output through regular ministerial meetings, including the June 7, 2026 session where members adjusted voluntary production cuts by 188,000 barrels per day while reaffirming market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit and geopolitical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the remaining core producers—led by Saudi Arabia—have sustained quota mechanisms and monthly reporting, keeping implied probabilities for full dissolution extremely low. Traders view these operational signals as evidence that cartel coordination persists, even amid lower 2026 demand-growth forecasts. A realistic challenge would require additional major exits or a formal dissolution vote, neither of which appears imminent given the group’s recent activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC+ continues to coordinate output through regular ministerial meetings, including the June 7, 2026 session where members adjusted voluntary production cuts by 188,000 barrels per day while reaffirming market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit and geopolitical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the remaining core producers—led by Saudi Arabia—have sustained quota mechanisms and monthly reporting, keeping implied probabilities for full dissolution extremely low. Traders view these operational signals as evidence that cartel coordination persists, even amid lower 2026 demand-growth forecasts. A realistic challenge would require additional major exits or a formal dissolution vote, neither of which appears imminent given the group’s recent activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,586End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC+ continues to coordinate output through regular ministerial meetings, including the June 7, 2026 session where members adjusted voluntary production cuts by 188,000 barrels per day while reaffirming market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit and geopolitical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the remaining core producers—led by Saudi Arabia—have sustained quota mechanisms and monthly reporting, keeping implied probabilities for full dissolution extremely low. Traders view these operational signals as evidence that cartel coordination persists, even amid lower 2026 demand-growth forecasts. A realistic challenge would require additional major exits or a formal dissolution vote, neither of which appears imminent given the group’s recent activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,586End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC+ continues to coordinate output through regular ministerial meetings, including the June 7, 2026 session where members adjusted voluntary production cuts by 188,000 barrels per day while reaffirming market-stability commitments. Despite the UAE’s May 2026 exit and geopolitical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the remaining core producers—led by Saudi Arabia—have sustained quota mechanisms and monthly reporting, keeping implied probabilities for full dissolution extremely low. Traders view these operational signals as evidence that cartel coordination persists, even amid lower 2026 demand-growth forecasts. A realistic challenge would require additional major exits or a formal dissolution vote, neither of which appears imminent given the group’s recent activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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