OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular quota coordination and output planning among remaining members despite recent exits, including the UAE's departure in May 2026 and reported considerations by Iraq and Venezuela. The organization has adapted to prior withdrawals by countries such as Angola, Qatar, and Ecuador without dissolving, and core producers continue monthly meetings on production targets into late 2026 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Trader consensus reflects this institutional resilience and absence of coordinated breakup mechanisms or formal dissolution announcements. Plausible shifts could arise from cascading exits by multiple major producers or unresolved quota disputes during the ongoing war that erode collective decision-making, though such outcomes remain low-probability within the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$36,499 Vol.
$36,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$36,499 Vol.
$36,499 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular quota coordination and output planning among remaining members despite recent exits, including the UAE's departure in May 2026 and reported considerations by Iraq and Venezuela. The organization has adapted to prior withdrawals by countries such as Angola, Qatar, and Ecuador without dissolving, and core producers continue monthly meetings on production targets into late 2026 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Trader consensus reflects this institutional resilience and absence of coordinated breakup mechanisms or formal dissolution announcements. Plausible shifts could arise from cascading exits by multiple major producers or unresolved quota disputes during the ongoing war that erode collective decision-making, though such outcomes remain low-probability within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$36,499End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular quota coordination and output planning among remaining members despite recent exits, including the UAE's departure in May 2026 and reported considerations by Iraq and Venezuela. The organization has adapted to prior withdrawals by countries such as Angola, Qatar, and Ecuador without dissolving, and core producers continue monthly meetings on production targets into late 2026 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Trader consensus reflects this institutional resilience and absence of coordinated breakup mechanisms or formal dissolution announcements. Plausible shifts could arise from cascading exits by multiple major producers or unresolved quota disputes during the ongoing war that erode collective decision-making, though such outcomes remain low-probability within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$36,499End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC maintains operational continuity through regular quota coordination and output planning among remaining members despite recent exits, including the UAE's departure in May 2026 and reported considerations by Iraq and Venezuela. The organization has adapted to prior withdrawals by countries such as Angola, Qatar, and Ecuador without dissolving, and core producers continue monthly meetings on production targets into late 2026 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Trader consensus reflects this institutional resilience and absence of coordinated breakup mechanisms or formal dissolution announcements. Plausible shifts could arise from cascading exits by multiple major producers or unresolved quota disputes during the ongoing war that erode collective decision-making, though such outcomes remain low-probability within the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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