Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have reinforced trader views that the organization will persist through 2026 despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit. That departure, which freed Abu Dhabi from output quotas amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to regional conflict, has reduced OPEC's market share but left the remaining group actively coordinating supply policy through virtual meetings and monthly reports. Oil demand forecasts for 2026 have been trimmed, yet the cartel continues releasing data and adjusting voluntary cuts, underscoring institutional inertia and the high costs of full dissolution. While further exits or escalated geopolitical shocks could test cohesion, historical precedent and the economic incentives for coordinated pricing support the market-implied odds favoring continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$17,098 Vol.
$17,098 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$17,098 Vol.
$17,098 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have reinforced trader views that the organization will persist through 2026 despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit. That departure, which freed Abu Dhabi from output quotas amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to regional conflict, has reduced OPEC's market share but left the remaining group actively coordinating supply policy through virtual meetings and monthly reports. Oil demand forecasts for 2026 have been trimmed, yet the cartel continues releasing data and adjusting voluntary cuts, underscoring institutional inertia and the high costs of full dissolution. While further exits or escalated geopolitical shocks could test cohesion, historical precedent and the economic incentives for coordinated pricing support the market-implied odds favoring continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$17,098End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have reinforced trader views that the organization will persist through 2026 despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit. That departure, which freed Abu Dhabi from output quotas amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to regional conflict, has reduced OPEC's market share but left the remaining group actively coordinating supply policy through virtual meetings and monthly reports. Oil demand forecasts for 2026 have been trimmed, yet the cartel continues releasing data and adjusting voluntary cuts, underscoring institutional inertia and the high costs of full dissolution. While further exits or escalated geopolitical shocks could test cohesion, historical precedent and the economic incentives for coordinated pricing support the market-implied odds favoring continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,098End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmations of market stability commitments by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have reinforced trader views that the organization will persist through 2026 despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit. That departure, which freed Abu Dhabi from output quotas amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to regional conflict, has reduced OPEC's market share but left the remaining group actively coordinating supply policy through virtual meetings and monthly reports. Oil demand forecasts for 2026 have been trimmed, yet the cartel continues releasing data and adjusting voluntary cuts, underscoring institutional inertia and the high costs of full dissolution. While further exits or escalated geopolitical shocks could test cohesion, historical precedent and the economic incentives for coordinated pricing support the market-implied odds favoring continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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