OPEC's ongoing coordination among members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others sustains high trader confidence against dissolution in 2026. Regular joint ministerial meetings, production adjustments, and the August 2026 reaffirmation of voluntary output measures reflect continued institutional commitment to market stability amid evolving demand forecasts. Shared interests in managing global oil supply, including OPEC+'s phased quota rollbacks and monitoring of inventories, outweigh internal tensions or external pressures like non-OPEC supply growth. The 95.5% implied probability on "No" aligns with this operational continuity, as no qualifying mass withdrawals have materialized. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt geopolitical realignments, quota disputes escalating into exits, or accelerated global energy transitions reducing the need for cartel coordination before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
5% chance
$32,435 Vol.
$32,435 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
$32,435 Vol.
$32,435 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's ongoing coordination among members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others sustains high trader confidence against dissolution in 2026. Regular joint ministerial meetings, production adjustments, and the August 2026 reaffirmation of voluntary output measures reflect continued institutional commitment to market stability amid evolving demand forecasts. Shared interests in managing global oil supply, including OPEC+'s phased quota rollbacks and monitoring of inventories, outweigh internal tensions or external pressures like non-OPEC supply growth. The 95.5% implied probability on "No" aligns with this operational continuity, as no qualifying mass withdrawals have materialized. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt geopolitical realignments, quota disputes escalating into exits, or accelerated global energy transitions reducing the need for cartel coordination before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,435End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's ongoing coordination among members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others sustains high trader confidence against dissolution in 2026. Regular joint ministerial meetings, production adjustments, and the August 2026 reaffirmation of voluntary output measures reflect continued institutional commitment to market stability amid evolving demand forecasts. Shared interests in managing global oil supply, including OPEC+'s phased quota rollbacks and monitoring of inventories, outweigh internal tensions or external pressures like non-OPEC supply growth. The 95.5% implied probability on "No" aligns with this operational continuity, as no qualifying mass withdrawals have materialized. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt geopolitical realignments, quota disputes escalating into exits, or accelerated global energy transitions reducing the need for cartel coordination before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,435End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's ongoing coordination among members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others sustains high trader confidence against dissolution in 2026. Regular joint ministerial meetings, production adjustments, and the August 2026 reaffirmation of voluntary output measures reflect continued institutional commitment to market stability amid evolving demand forecasts. Shared interests in managing global oil supply, including OPEC+'s phased quota rollbacks and monitoring of inventories, outweigh internal tensions or external pressures like non-OPEC supply growth. The 95.5% implied probability on "No" aligns with this operational continuity, as no qualifying mass withdrawals have materialized. Potential shifts could still arise from abrupt geopolitical realignments, quota disputes escalating into exits, or accelerated global energy transitions reducing the need for cartel coordination before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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