Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,339End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,339End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a firm 91% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's shock April 28 announcement of its May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years. Longstanding quota disputes—UAE's 3.4 million bpd output capped below its 5 million bpd capacity despite heavy investments—prompted the departure, yet OPEC+ sources and analysts affirm group cohesion under Saudi leadership, bolstered by Iraq's commitment to stay and diplomatic incentives. Recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meetings, including April 5, signal continued production discipline amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran war spiking Brent above $110 per barrel. Realistic challenges include further exits by quota-challenged members like Kazakhstan or post-conflict oversupply rivalries, with the next JMMC on May 3 a key watchpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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