**OPEC crude oil production in May 2026 has been sharply constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid regional conflict involving Iran, which disrupted exports from major Gulf producers.** Secondary-source data in recent OPEC reports show steep month-on-month declines, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE recording the largest drops totaling several million barrels per day from February levels. OPEC+ has continued modest quota adjustments for unwinding prior voluntary cuts, but actual output remains well below targets due to physical export limits rather than policy choices. The June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, due for release on June 11, will provide the definitive secondary-source figure for May that resolves the market. Traders are monitoring any signs of resumed tanker traffic or further diplomatic developments that could lift output before month-end data is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,758 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
18 Million
Yes
19 Million
No
20 Million
No
21 Million
No
$19,758 Vol.
18 Million
$4,906 Vol.
Yes
19 Million
$4,593 Vol.
No
20 Million
$4,693 Vol.
No
21 Million
$5,565 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026
The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.
Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.
If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.**OPEC crude oil production in May 2026 has been sharply constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid regional conflict involving Iran, which disrupted exports from major Gulf producers.** Secondary-source data in recent OPEC reports show steep month-on-month declines, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE recording the largest drops totaling several million barrels per day from February levels. OPEC+ has continued modest quota adjustments for unwinding prior voluntary cuts, but actual output remains well below targets due to physical export limits rather than policy choices. The June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, due for release on June 11, will provide the definitive secondary-source figure for May that resolves the market. Traders are monitoring any signs of resumed tanker traffic or further diplomatic developments that could lift output before month-end data is finalized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026
The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.
Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.
If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026
The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.
Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.
If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$19,758End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026
The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.
Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.
If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.**OPEC crude oil production in May 2026 has been sharply constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid regional conflict involving Iran, which disrupted exports from major Gulf producers.** Secondary-source data in recent OPEC reports show steep month-on-month declines, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE recording the largest drops totaling several million barrels per day from February levels. OPEC+ has continued modest quota adjustments for unwinding prior voluntary cuts, but actual output remains well below targets due to physical export limits rather than policy choices. The June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, due for release on June 11, will provide the definitive secondary-source figure for May that resolves the market. Traders are monitoring any signs of resumed tanker traffic or further diplomatic developments that could lift output before month-end data is finalized.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026
The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.
Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.
If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026
The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution.
Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.
If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$19,758End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**OPEC crude oil production in May 2026 has been sharply constrained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid regional conflict involving Iran, which disrupted exports from major Gulf producers.** Secondary-source data in recent OPEC reports show steep month-on-month declines, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE recording the largest drops totaling several million barrels per day from February levels. OPEC+ has continued modest quota adjustments for unwinding prior voluntary cuts, but actual output remains well below targets due to physical export limits rather than policy choices. The June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, due for release on June 11, will provide the definitive secondary-source figure for May that resolves the market. Traders are monitoring any signs of resumed tanker traffic or further diplomatic developments that could lift output before month-end data is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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