Israeli Defense Forces' capture of Beaufort Castle and initial advance north of the Litani River into Arnoun outskirts on March 29, following Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 24 announcement of plans to seize southern Lebanon up to the river for a security buffer zone against Hezbollah, underpin the 73.5% yes probability by June 30. Airstrikes on Litani bridges like Qasmiyeh, expanded evacuation orders to the Zahrani River, and deepened ground operations signal strong military momentum amid the ongoing Hezbollah conflict. Traders weigh Hezbollah vows of resistance and diplomatic pressures from UNIFIL or international actors as remaining uncertainties that could delay full crossing before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$101,685 Vol.
$101,685 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$101,685 Vol.
$101,685 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Forces' capture of Beaufort Castle and initial advance north of the Litani River into Arnoun outskirts on March 29, following Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 24 announcement of plans to seize southern Lebanon up to the river for a security buffer zone against Hezbollah, underpin the 73.5% yes probability by June 30. Airstrikes on Litani bridges like Qasmiyeh, expanded evacuation orders to the Zahrani River, and deepened ground operations signal strong military momentum amid the ongoing Hezbollah conflict. Traders weigh Hezbollah vows of resistance and diplomatic pressures from UNIFIL or international actors as remaining uncertainties that could delay full crossing before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$101,685End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Forces' capture of Beaufort Castle and initial advance north of the Litani River into Arnoun outskirts on March 29, following Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 24 announcement of plans to seize southern Lebanon up to the river for a security buffer zone against Hezbollah, underpin the 73.5% yes probability by June 30. Airstrikes on Litani bridges like Qasmiyeh, expanded evacuation orders to the Zahrani River, and deepened ground operations signal strong military momentum amid the ongoing Hezbollah conflict. Traders weigh Hezbollah vows of resistance and diplomatic pressures from UNIFIL or international actors as remaining uncertainties that could delay full crossing before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,694End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli Defense Forces' capture of Beaufort Castle and initial advance north of the Litani River into Arnoun outskirts on March 29, following Defense Minister Israel Katz's March 24 announcement of plans to seize southern Lebanon up to the river for a security buffer zone against Hezbollah, underpin the 73.5% yes probability by June 30. Airstrikes on Litani bridges like Qasmiyeh, expanded evacuation orders to the Zahrani River, and deepened ground operations signal strong military momentum amid the ongoing Hezbollah conflict. Traders weigh Hezbollah vows of resistance and diplomatic pressures from UNIFIL or international actors as remaining uncertainties that could delay full crossing before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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