The US-Israel-Iran war, triggered by surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and leadership sites, marks its 32nd day with no resolution, as ongoing exchanges of missiles, drones, and airstrikes— including recent intense US-Israel bombings on Tehran and a Houthi drone attack on Israel intercepted yesterday—fuel trader consensus for prolonged hostilities. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz reopening and regime concessions, while President Trump extended a pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 to allow Pakistan-hosted peace talks. Israel vows further escalation amid multi-front threats from Hezbollah, with US Marines deploying and ground invasion plans under Pentagon review, heightening uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or military intensification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$8,445,924 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
1%
April 15
15%
April 7
4%
April 30
26%
May 15
38%
June 30
60%
December 31
80%
$8,445,924 Vol.
March 31
$4,347,391 Vol.
1%
April 15
$957,639 Vol.
15%
April 7
$142,376 Vol.
4%
April 30
$729,681 Vol.
26%
May 15
$1,218,671 Vol.
38%
June 30
$828,970 Vol.
60%
December 31
$221,197 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran war, triggered by surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and leadership sites, marks its 32nd day with no resolution, as ongoing exchanges of missiles, drones, and airstrikes— including recent intense US-Israel bombings on Tehran and a Houthi drone attack on Israel intercepted yesterday—fuel trader consensus for prolonged hostilities. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz reopening and regime concessions, while President Trump extended a pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 to allow Pakistan-hosted peace talks. Israel vows further escalation amid multi-front threats from Hezbollah, with US Marines deploying and ground invasion plans under Pentagon review, heightening uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or military intensification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$8,445,924End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran war, triggered by surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and leadership sites, marks its 32nd day with no resolution, as ongoing exchanges of missiles, drones, and airstrikes— including recent intense US-Israel bombings on Tehran and a Houthi drone attack on Israel intercepted yesterday—fuel trader consensus for prolonged hostilities. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz reopening and regime concessions, while President Trump extended a pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 to allow Pakistan-hosted peace talks. Israel vows further escalation amid multi-front threats from Hezbollah, with US Marines deploying and ground invasion plans under Pentagon review, heightening uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or military intensification.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,445,924End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel-Iran war, triggered by surprise airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and leadership sites, marks its 32nd day with no resolution, as ongoing exchanges of missiles, drones, and airstrikes— including recent intense US-Israel bombings on Tehran and a Houthi drone attack on Israel intercepted yesterday—fuel trader consensus for prolonged hostilities. Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding Strait of Hormuz reopening and regime concessions, while President Trump extended a pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 to allow Pakistan-hosted peace talks. Israel vows further escalation amid multi-front threats from Hezbollah, with US Marines deploying and ground invasion plans under Pentagon review, heightening uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or military intensification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions