Utah's court-ordered redistricting created a new UT-01 congressional district centered on Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City with a D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index, transforming it into an open seat strong pickup opportunity for Democrats and driving trader consensus to 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. This open race lacks an incumbent after Rep. Blake Moore shifted to UT-02, leaving Republicans with challengers like Riley Owen and David Robinson facing an uphill battle. A late-March Data for Progress poll showed former Rep. Ben McAdams leading the crowded Democratic primary at 36% over Nate Blouin at 23%, amid record caucus turnout; party conventions on April 25 and the June 23 primary loom as key catalysts before the November 3 general election. GOP barriers include the district's partisan lean and national House control dynamics, though a weak Democratic nominee or midterm wave could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,306 Vol.
$26,306 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
88%
共和党
13%
$26,306 Vol.
$26,306 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$1,007 Vol.
88%
共和党
$25,299 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's court-ordered redistricting created a new UT-01 congressional district centered on Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City with a D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index, transforming it into an open seat strong pickup opportunity for Democrats and driving trader consensus to 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. This open race lacks an incumbent after Rep. Blake Moore shifted to UT-02, leaving Republicans with challengers like Riley Owen and David Robinson facing an uphill battle. A late-March Data for Progress poll showed former Rep. Ben McAdams leading the crowded Democratic primary at 36% over Nate Blouin at 23%, amid record caucus turnout; party conventions on April 25 and the June 23 primary loom as key catalysts before the November 3 general election. GOP barriers include the district's partisan lean and national House control dynamics, though a weak Democratic nominee or midterm wave could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$26,306終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's court-ordered redistricting created a new UT-01 congressional district centered on Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City with a D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index, transforming it into an open seat strong pickup opportunity for Democrats and driving trader consensus to 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. This open race lacks an incumbent after Rep. Blake Moore shifted to UT-02, leaving Republicans with challengers like Riley Owen and David Robinson facing an uphill battle. A late-March Data for Progress poll showed former Rep. Ben McAdams leading the crowded Democratic primary at 36% over Nate Blouin at 23%, amid record caucus turnout; party conventions on April 25 and the June 23 primary loom as key catalysts before the November 3 general election. GOP barriers include the district's partisan lean and national House control dynamics, though a weak Democratic nominee or midterm wave could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,306終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's court-ordered redistricting created a new UT-01 congressional district centered on Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City with a D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index, transforming it into an open seat strong pickup opportunity for Democrats and driving trader consensus to 87.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner. This open race lacks an incumbent after Rep. Blake Moore shifted to UT-02, leaving Republicans with challengers like Riley Owen and David Robinson facing an uphill battle. A late-March Data for Progress poll showed former Rep. Ben McAdams leading the crowded Democratic primary at 36% over Nate Blouin at 23%, amid record caucus turnout; party conventions on April 25 and the June 23 primary loom as key catalysts before the November 3 general election. GOP barriers include the district's partisan lean and national House control dynamics, though a weak Democratic nominee or midterm wave could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問