Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57.5% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting recent polling averages showing incumbent Marcy Kaptur leading Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3-4 points, including a mid-October Emerson poll at 48%-44%. Kaptur's 42-year tenure, fundraising edge with $1.2 million cash on hand versus Merrin's $300,000, and the district's Democratic-leaning PVI of D+6 underpin this positioning, countering national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but early in-person voting starts October 29, with the November 5 election hinging on turnout in this battleground northeast Ohio district encompassing Toledo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$19,599 Vol.
$19,599 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
57%
共和党
41%
$19,599 Vol.
$19,599 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$55 Vol.
57%
共和党
$19,550 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57.5% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting recent polling averages showing incumbent Marcy Kaptur leading Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3-4 points, including a mid-October Emerson poll at 48%-44%. Kaptur's 42-year tenure, fundraising edge with $1.2 million cash on hand versus Merrin's $300,000, and the district's Democratic-leaning PVI of D+6 underpin this positioning, countering national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but early in-person voting starts October 29, with the November 5 election hinging on turnout in this battleground northeast Ohio district encompassing Toledo.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$19,599終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57.5% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting recent polling averages showing incumbent Marcy Kaptur leading Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3-4 points, including a mid-October Emerson poll at 48%-44%. Kaptur's 42-year tenure, fundraising edge with $1.2 million cash on hand versus Merrin's $300,000, and the district's Democratic-leaning PVI of D+6 underpin this positioning, countering national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but early in-person voting starts October 29, with the November 5 election hinging on turnout in this battleground northeast Ohio district encompassing Toledo.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,599終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 57.5% implied probability to win Ohio's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting recent polling averages showing incumbent Marcy Kaptur leading Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 3-4 points, including a mid-October Emerson poll at 48%-44%. Kaptur's 42-year tenure, fundraising edge with $1.2 million cash on hand versus Merrin's $300,000, and the district's Democratic-leaning PVI of D+6 underpin this positioning, countering national GOP momentum in competitive House races. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, but early in-person voting starts October 29, with the November 5 election hinging on turnout in this battleground northeast Ohio district encompassing Toledo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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