Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, who filed for reelection in late January 2026 with no GOP primary challengers, anchors trader consensus at 86.5% for the Republican Party in Kansas' 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report due to its strong GOP lean and Estes' consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Democrat Katy Tyndell, a Wichita civic leader who recently ramped up her challenge amid local economic concerns, trails at 13%, reflecting the district's entrenched Republican base in Wichita and south-central Kansas absent early polling or nationalized trends. August 4 primaries could clarify nominees, but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats sustain high GOP probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$25,754 Vol.
$25,754 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
13%
$25,754 Vol.
$25,754 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$13,734 Vol.
87%
民主党
$12,020 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, who filed for reelection in late January 2026 with no GOP primary challengers, anchors trader consensus at 86.5% for the Republican Party in Kansas' 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report due to its strong GOP lean and Estes' consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Democrat Katy Tyndell, a Wichita civic leader who recently ramped up her challenge amid local economic concerns, trails at 13%, reflecting the district's entrenched Republican base in Wichita and south-central Kansas absent early polling or nationalized trends. August 4 primaries could clarify nominees, but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats sustain high GOP probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$25,754終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, who filed for reelection in late January 2026 with no GOP primary challengers, anchors trader consensus at 86.5% for the Republican Party in Kansas' 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report due to its strong GOP lean and Estes' consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Democrat Katy Tyndell, a Wichita civic leader who recently ramped up her challenge amid local economic concerns, trails at 13%, reflecting the district's entrenched Republican base in Wichita and south-central Kansas absent early polling or nationalized trends. August 4 primaries could clarify nominees, but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats sustain high GOP probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,754終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ron Estes, who filed for reelection in late January 2026 with no GOP primary challengers, anchors trader consensus at 86.5% for the Republican Party in Kansas' 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report due to its strong GOP lean and Estes' consistent margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Democrat Katy Tyndell, a Wichita civic leader who recently ramped up her challenge amid local economic concerns, trails at 13%, reflecting the district's entrenched Republican base in Wichita and south-central Kansas absent early polling or nationalized trends. August 4 primaries could clarify nominees, but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats sustain high GOP probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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