Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's unopposed advancement through the canceled primary—due to no challengers filing—solidifies trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, rated Safe or Solid Republican with an R+23 partisan voter index. Crawford's history of landslide victories, including 73% in 2024 against Democrat Rodney Govens and 74% in 2022, underscores structural advantages in this rural northeastern district anchored by Jonesboro. Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist advancing unopposed on her side, faces steep historical barriers amid absent competitive polling. Odds could shift via a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or national midterm wave boosting Democratic turnout, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$18,687 Vol.
$18,687 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$11,115 Vol.
93%
民主党
$7,571 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's unopposed advancement through the canceled primary—due to no challengers filing—solidifies trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, rated Safe or Solid Republican with an R+23 partisan voter index. Crawford's history of landslide victories, including 73% in 2024 against Democrat Rodney Govens and 74% in 2022, underscores structural advantages in this rural northeastern district anchored by Jonesboro. Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist advancing unopposed on her side, faces steep historical barriers amid absent competitive polling. Odds could shift via a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or national midterm wave boosting Democratic turnout, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$18,687終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's unopposed advancement through the canceled primary—due to no challengers filing—solidifies trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, rated Safe or Solid Republican with an R+23 partisan voter index. Crawford's history of landslide victories, including 73% in 2024 against Democrat Rodney Govens and 74% in 2022, underscores structural advantages in this rural northeastern district anchored by Jonesboro. Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist advancing unopposed on her side, faces steep historical barriers amid absent competitive polling. Odds could shift via a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or national midterm wave boosting Democratic turnout, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,687終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's unopposed advancement through the canceled primary—due to no challengers filing—solidifies trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP hold in Arkansas's 1st Congressional District, rated Safe or Solid Republican with an R+23 partisan voter index. Crawford's history of landslide victories, including 73% in 2024 against Democrat Rodney Govens and 74% in 2022, underscores structural advantages in this rural northeastern district anchored by Jonesboro. Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist advancing unopposed on her side, faces steep historical barriers amid absent competitive polling. Odds could shift via a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or national midterm wave boosting Democratic turnout, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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