Mississippi's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean exceeding 29 points, which has produced consistent double-digit victories for incumbent Representative Michael Guest in prior cycles and an unopposed 2024 general election. Guest, who chairs the House Ethics Committee, secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee and Libertarian challenger entered the race with limited prior visibility or fundraising. Traders assign the Republican Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's electoral math, incumbency protections, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen national political wave, a late scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical patterns in solidly Republican seats indicate such outcomes remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,682 Vol.
$28,682 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
5%
$28,682 Vol.
$28,682 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,190 Vol.
93%
民主党
$22,492 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mississippi's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean exceeding 29 points, which has produced consistent double-digit victories for incumbent Representative Michael Guest in prior cycles and an unopposed 2024 general election. Guest, who chairs the House Ethics Committee, secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee and Libertarian challenger entered the race with limited prior visibility or fundraising. Traders assign the Republican Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's electoral math, incumbency protections, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen national political wave, a late scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical patterns in solidly Republican seats indicate such outcomes remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$28,682終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mississippi's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean exceeding 29 points, which has produced consistent double-digit victories for incumbent Representative Michael Guest in prior cycles and an unopposed 2024 general election. Guest, who chairs the House Ethics Committee, secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee and Libertarian challenger entered the race with limited prior visibility or fundraising. Traders assign the Republican Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's electoral math, incumbency protections, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen national political wave, a late scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical patterns in solidly Republican seats indicate such outcomes remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,682終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mississippi's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean exceeding 29 points, which has produced consistent double-digit victories for incumbent Representative Michael Guest in prior cycles and an unopposed 2024 general election. Guest, who chairs the House Ethics Committee, secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee and Libertarian challenger entered the race with limited prior visibility or fundraising. Traders assign the Republican Party a 92.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's electoral math, incumbency protections, and absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. Low-probability shifts could arise from an unforeseen national political wave, a late scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical patterns in solidly Republican seats indicate such outcomes remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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