Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability of retaining Ohio's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent David Taylor's decisive 2024 general election win following Brad Wenstrup's retirement. The district's R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index under Ohio's new congressional map—redrawn in October 2025—reinforces its Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report, with no early polls signaling vulnerability amid Ohio's battleground state dynamics. Primaries on May 5 feature contests in both parties after the February 4 filing deadline, yet base rates for such deep-red districts show incumbents prevailing absent upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from a scandal hitting Taylor, a divisive GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, or national midterm forces dramatically boosting Democratic turnout in southern Ohio.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$18,651 Vol.
$18,651 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
$18,651 Vol.
$18,651 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$18,651 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability of retaining Ohio's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent David Taylor's decisive 2024 general election win following Brad Wenstrup's retirement. The district's R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index under Ohio's new congressional map—redrawn in October 2025—reinforces its Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report, with no early polls signaling vulnerability amid Ohio's battleground state dynamics. Primaries on May 5 feature contests in both parties after the February 4 filing deadline, yet base rates for such deep-red districts show incumbents prevailing absent upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from a scandal hitting Taylor, a divisive GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, or national midterm forces dramatically boosting Democratic turnout in southern Ohio.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$18,651終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability of retaining Ohio's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent David Taylor's decisive 2024 general election win following Brad Wenstrup's retirement. The district's R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index under Ohio's new congressional map—redrawn in October 2025—reinforces its Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report, with no early polls signaling vulnerability amid Ohio's battleground state dynamics. Primaries on May 5 feature contests in both parties after the February 4 filing deadline, yet base rates for such deep-red districts show incumbents prevailing absent upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from a scandal hitting Taylor, a divisive GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, or national midterm forces dramatically boosting Democratic turnout in southern Ohio.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,651終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Republican Party a commanding 91.5% implied probability of retaining Ohio's 2nd Congressional District House seat, anchored by incumbent David Taylor's decisive 2024 general election win following Brad Wenstrup's retirement. The district's R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index under Ohio's new congressional map—redrawn in October 2025—reinforces its Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report, with no early polls signaling vulnerability amid Ohio's battleground state dynamics. Primaries on May 5 feature contests in both parties after the February 4 filing deadline, yet base rates for such deep-red districts show incumbents prevailing absent upheaval. Realistic shifts could stem from a scandal hitting Taylor, a divisive GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, or national midterm forces dramatically boosting Democratic turnout in southern Ohio.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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