Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deeply blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory at 94.5%. Simon, who won decisively in 2024 with over 70% amid a top-two primary matchup against another Democrat, recently filed for re-election, solidifying her frontrunner status in the East Bay's progressive stronghold absent any credible Republican challengers to date. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, underscoring the district's reliable Democratic base and incumbency edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP advance in the primary, a personal scandal, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents in such seats suggest low likelihood.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$16,875 Vol.
$16,875 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$16,875 Vol.
$16,875 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,050 Vol.
95%
共和党
$4,825 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deeply blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory at 94.5%. Simon, who won decisively in 2024 with over 70% amid a top-two primary matchup against another Democrat, recently filed for re-election, solidifying her frontrunner status in the East Bay's progressive stronghold absent any credible Republican challengers to date. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, underscoring the district's reliable Democratic base and incumbency edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP advance in the primary, a personal scandal, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents in such seats suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$16,875終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deeply blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory at 94.5%. Simon, who won decisively in 2024 with over 70% amid a top-two primary matchup against another Democrat, recently filed for re-election, solidifying her frontrunner status in the East Bay's progressive stronghold absent any credible Republican challengers to date. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, underscoring the district's reliable Democratic base and incumbency edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP advance in the primary, a personal scandal, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents in such seats suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,875終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's commanding position in California's deeply blue 12th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory at 94.5%. Simon, who won decisively in 2024 with over 70% amid a top-two primary matchup against another Democrat, recently filed for re-election, solidifying her frontrunner status in the East Bay's progressive stronghold absent any credible Republican challengers to date. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, underscoring the district's reliable Democratic base and incumbency edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Realistic challenges include a surprise GOP advance in the primary, a personal scandal, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents in such seats suggest low likelihood.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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