Incumbent Democrat Don Davis holds a polling edge over Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, with recent surveys from GQR and Neighborhood Research showing leads of 6–10 points among likely voters. The rematch occurs in a district redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans based on 2024 presidential results. Davis maintains stronger name identification and net-positive favorability ratings, while Buckhout’s have turned negative amid increased outside spending. Forecasters rate the race Lean Republican or Toss-up, and trader consensus appears influenced by Davis’s consistent polling performance and potential coattails from the competitive U.S. Senate contest. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date.
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