Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a double-digit lead in Nevada's 4th Congressional District per recent polling averages, fueling trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party on Polymarket. Horsford's edge reflects incumbency advantages, strong support among Latino voters and unions in the Las Vegas suburbs, and consistent surveys like the October News3/LVRJ poll (47%-38%) and Emerson College poll showing him ahead by 10 points. Republican challenger Sam Peters, a former prosecutor, trails amid weaker fundraising and national GOP midterm headwinds in a district rated D+5 on the partisan lean index. With mail ballots mailed this week and Election Day on November 5, markets anticipate stability barring late scandals or turnout shifts in early voting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
83%
共和党
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 Vol.
83%
共和党
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a double-digit lead in Nevada's 4th Congressional District per recent polling averages, fueling trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party on Polymarket. Horsford's edge reflects incumbency advantages, strong support among Latino voters and unions in the Las Vegas suburbs, and consistent surveys like the October News3/LVRJ poll (47%-38%) and Emerson College poll showing him ahead by 10 points. Republican challenger Sam Peters, a former prosecutor, trails amid weaker fundraising and national GOP midterm headwinds in a district rated D+5 on the partisan lean index. With mail ballots mailed this week and Election Day on November 5, markets anticipate stability barring late scandals or turnout shifts in early voting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a double-digit lead in Nevada's 4th Congressional District per recent polling averages, fueling trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party on Polymarket. Horsford's edge reflects incumbency advantages, strong support among Latino voters and unions in the Las Vegas suburbs, and consistent surveys like the October News3/LVRJ poll (47%-38%) and Emerson College poll showing him ahead by 10 points. Republican challenger Sam Peters, a former prosecutor, trails amid weaker fundraising and national GOP midterm headwinds in a district rated D+5 on the partisan lean index. With mail ballots mailed this week and Election Day on November 5, markets anticipate stability barring late scandals or turnout shifts in early voting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$0終了日
Nov 4, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford holds a double-digit lead in Nevada's 4th Congressional District per recent polling averages, fueling trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party on Polymarket. Horsford's edge reflects incumbency advantages, strong support among Latino voters and unions in the Las Vegas suburbs, and consistent surveys like the October News3/LVRJ poll (47%-38%) and Emerson College poll showing him ahead by 10 points. Republican challenger Sam Peters, a former prosecutor, trails amid weaker fundraising and national GOP midterm headwinds in a district rated D+5 on the partisan lean index. With mail ballots mailed this week and Election Day on November 5, markets anticipate stability barring late scandals or turnout shifts in early voting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問