Incumbent Democratic Representative Steven Horsford is seeking re-election in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established incumbency advantage and primary filing, has shaped trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Primaries remain scheduled for June 9, 2026, with general election voting on November 3; no major shifts in candidate field or polling have altered the positioning in recent weeks. This structural and historical context supports the elevated probability assigned to a Democratic outcome while leaving room for standard campaign variables ahead of the primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
89%
共和党
18%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$827 Vol.
89%
共和党
$605 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Steven Horsford is seeking re-election in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established incumbency advantage and primary filing, has shaped trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Primaries remain scheduled for June 9, 2026, with general election voting on November 3; no major shifts in candidate field or polling have altered the positioning in recent weeks. This structural and historical context supports the elevated probability assigned to a Democratic outcome while leaving room for standard campaign variables ahead of the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$1,432終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Steven Horsford is seeking re-election in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established incumbency advantage and primary filing, has shaped trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Primaries remain scheduled for June 9, 2026, with general election voting on November 3; no major shifts in candidate field or polling have altered the positioning in recent weeks. This structural and historical context supports the elevated probability assigned to a Democratic outcome while leaving room for standard campaign variables ahead of the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,432終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Steven Horsford is seeking re-election in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a seat rated Likely Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. The district’s modest Democratic lean, combined with Horsford’s established incumbency advantage and primary filing, has shaped trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Primaries remain scheduled for June 9, 2026, with general election voting on November 3; no major shifts in candidate field or polling have altered the positioning in recent weeks. This structural and historical context supports the elevated probability assigned to a Democratic outcome while leaving room for standard campaign variables ahead of the primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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