Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Republican Party winning Florida's 8th Congressional District House seat, anchored by the district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and incumbent Rep. Mike Haridopolos' decisive 2024 general election victory margin of 24.4 percentage points over Democrat Sandy Kennedy. Haridopolos, who secured 72% in his 2024 Republican primary and boasts $786,000 cash on hand as of December 2025, runs unopposed in the August 18, 2026, GOP primary. Democrats face a primary between low-fundraising Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock, alongside independent Lacey Villareal, with no recent polling to suggest competitiveness; forecasters rate it Solid Republican, barring scandals or national waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
90%
民主党
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,901 Vol.
90%
民主党
$4,104 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Republican Party winning Florida's 8th Congressional District House seat, anchored by the district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and incumbent Rep. Mike Haridopolos' decisive 2024 general election victory margin of 24.4 percentage points over Democrat Sandy Kennedy. Haridopolos, who secured 72% in his 2024 Republican primary and boasts $786,000 cash on hand as of December 2025, runs unopposed in the August 18, 2026, GOP primary. Democrats face a primary between low-fundraising Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock, alongside independent Lacey Villareal, with no recent polling to suggest competitiveness; forecasters rate it Solid Republican, barring scandals or national waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
音量
$8,004終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Republican Party winning Florida's 8th Congressional District House seat, anchored by the district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and incumbent Rep. Mike Haridopolos' decisive 2024 general election victory margin of 24.4 percentage points over Democrat Sandy Kennedy. Haridopolos, who secured 72% in his 2024 Republican primary and boasts $786,000 cash on hand as of December 2025, runs unopposed in the August 18, 2026, GOP primary. Democrats face a primary between low-fundraising Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock, alongside independent Lacey Villareal, with no recent polling to suggest competitiveness; forecasters rate it Solid Republican, barring scandals or national waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,004終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Republican Party winning Florida's 8th Congressional District House seat, anchored by the district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and incumbent Rep. Mike Haridopolos' decisive 2024 general election victory margin of 24.4 percentage points over Democrat Sandy Kennedy. Haridopolos, who secured 72% in his 2024 Republican primary and boasts $786,000 cash on hand as of December 2025, runs unopposed in the August 18, 2026, GOP primary. Democrats face a primary between low-fundraising Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock, alongside independent Lacey Villareal, with no recent polling to suggest competitiveness; forecasters rate it Solid Republican, barring scandals or national waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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