Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 84% in Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Aaron Bean's strong reelection position after a 15-point 2024 win, and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Bean's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Michael Kirwan ($183,000 cash), amid a crowded field facing August 18 primaries. Late March endorsements for Kirwan from ex-Rep. Al Lawson and Jacksonville firefighters signal modest Democratic organizing in this reliably Republican Northeast Florida district covering Jacksonville suburbs, but structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds ahead of the June filing deadline and November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
84%
民主党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,398 Vol.
84%
民主党
$2,680 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 84% in Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Aaron Bean's strong reelection position after a 15-point 2024 win, and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Bean's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Michael Kirwan ($183,000 cash), amid a crowded field facing August 18 primaries. Late March endorsements for Kirwan from ex-Rep. Al Lawson and Jacksonville firefighters signal modest Democratic organizing in this reliably Republican Northeast Florida district covering Jacksonville suburbs, but structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds ahead of the June filing deadline and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
音量
$5,078終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 84% in Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Aaron Bean's strong reelection position after a 15-point 2024 win, and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Bean's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Michael Kirwan ($183,000 cash), amid a crowded field facing August 18 primaries. Late March endorsements for Kirwan from ex-Rep. Al Lawson and Jacksonville firefighters signal modest Democratic organizing in this reliably Republican Northeast Florida district covering Jacksonville suburbs, but structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds ahead of the June filing deadline and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,078終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 84% in Florida's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the seat's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Aaron Bean's strong reelection position after a 15-point 2024 win, and Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Bean's fundraising dominance—over $1 million cash on hand as of late 2025—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Michael Kirwan ($183,000 cash), amid a crowded field facing August 18 primaries. Late March endorsements for Kirwan from ex-Rep. Al Lawson and Jacksonville firefighters signal modest Democratic organizing in this reliably Republican Northeast Florida district covering Jacksonville suburbs, but structural advantages sustain the lopsided odds ahead of the June filing deadline and November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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