Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$36,461 Vol.
$36,461 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$36,461 Vol.
$36,461 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$15,719 Vol.
95%
共和党
$20,742 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$36,461終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$36,461終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 partisan voting index and consistent general election margins above 70 percent for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar secured the Democratic nomination after announcing her re-election bid in April 2025, facing primary challengers ahead of the August 11 vote while Republican candidates remain limited in organization and fundraising. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability based on this structural advantage and historical turnout patterns in the Minneapolis-centered district. A national Republican wave, significant primary disruption producing a weaker nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require sustained polling reversals not observed in comparable safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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