Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan seeks re-election in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts. The district’s strong Democratic voter base, urban-suburban composition, and McClellan’s prior general-election margin exceeding 30 points underpin the 92.5% trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory. August primaries and the November 3 general election remain the key scheduled milestones. A sustained national Republican surge, late primary surprise, or unforeseen court-ordered map change could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,277 Vol.
93%
共和党
$2,151 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan seeks re-election in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts. The district’s strong Democratic voter base, urban-suburban composition, and McClellan’s prior general-election margin exceeding 30 points underpin the 92.5% trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory. August primaries and the November 3 general election remain the key scheduled milestones. A sustained national Republican surge, late primary surprise, or unforeseen court-ordered map change could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$5,427終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan seeks re-election in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts. The district’s strong Democratic voter base, urban-suburban composition, and McClellan’s prior general-election margin exceeding 30 points underpin the 92.5% trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory. August primaries and the November 3 general election remain the key scheduled milestones. A sustained national Republican surge, late primary surprise, or unforeseen court-ordered map change could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,427終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan seeks re-election in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts. The district’s strong Democratic voter base, urban-suburban composition, and McClellan’s prior general-election margin exceeding 30 points underpin the 92.5% trader-implied probability for a Democratic victory. August primaries and the November 3 general election remain the key scheduled milestones. A sustained national Republican surge, late primary surprise, or unforeseen court-ordered map change could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural advantages make such shifts improbable without major intervening events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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