Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?
NEW
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 13, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC
Volume
$4,231End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 13, 2026, 9:10 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...NEW
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,231End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 13, 2026, 9:10 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.