Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran—now over a month old with strikes exceeding 11,000 targets including nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak—traders weigh the odds of additional countries launching direct offensive actions by the market's resolution date. Yesterday's March 28 Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel highlight sustained escalation, while Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists despite limited ship passages. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for full reopening amid Pakistan-mediated talks on a rejected US 15-point peace plan, postponing power grid strikes. Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain host US operations and intercept Iranian retaliation but have not conducted strikes on Iran; G7 and NATO responses remain defensive. Congressional war powers votes could influence further involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
$112,278 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
23%
April 30
31%
$112,278 Vol.
April 15
$56,918 Vol.
23%
April 30
$55,360 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran—now over a month old with strikes exceeding 11,000 targets including nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak—traders weigh the odds of additional countries launching direct offensive actions by the market's resolution date. Yesterday's March 28 Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel highlight sustained escalation, while Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists despite limited ship passages. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for full reopening amid Pakistan-mediated talks on a rejected US 15-point peace plan, postponing power grid strikes. Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain host US operations and intercept Iranian retaliation but have not conducted strikes on Iran; G7 and NATO responses remain defensive. Congressional war powers votes could influence further involvement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$112,278End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran—now over a month old with strikes exceeding 11,000 targets including nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak—traders weigh the odds of additional countries launching direct offensive actions by the market's resolution date. Yesterday's March 28 Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel highlight sustained escalation, while Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists despite limited ship passages. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for full reopening amid Pakistan-mediated talks on a rejected US 15-point peace plan, postponing power grid strikes. Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain host US operations and intercept Iranian retaliation but have not conducted strikes on Iran; G7 and NATO responses remain defensive. Congressional war powers votes could influence further involvement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$112,278End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran—now over a month old with strikes exceeding 11,000 targets including nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak—traders weigh the odds of additional countries launching direct offensive actions by the market's resolution date. Yesterday's March 28 Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Israel highlight sustained escalation, while Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists despite limited ship passages. President Trump extended a deadline to April 6 for full reopening amid Pakistan-mediated talks on a rejected US 15-point peace plan, postponing power grid strikes. Gulf states like UAE and Bahrain host US operations and intercept Iranian retaliation but have not conducted strikes on Iran; G7 and NATO responses remain defensive. Congressional war powers votes could influence further involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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