Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
World·Iran

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Market icon
World·Iran

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Mojtaba Khamenei 42.8%

Alireza Arafi 13.9%

Hassan Khomeini 9.7%

Position abolished 6.4%

Polymarket

$25,804,186 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 42.8%

Alireza Arafi 13.9%

Hassan Khomeini 9.7%

Position abolished 6.4%

Polymarket

$25,804,186 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$7,146,395 Vol.

43%

Alireza Arafi

$2,142,005 Vol.

14%

Hassan Khomeini

$825,108 Vol.

10%

Position abolished

$1,425,082 Vol.

6%

None by June 30

$956,390 Vol.

6%

Hassan Rouhani

$714,328 Vol.

4%

Sadegh Larijani

$660,355 Vol.

4%

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

$696,062 Vol.

3%

Ali Larijani

$907,504 Vol.

2%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$601,556 Vol.

1%

Reza Pahlavi

$973,537 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$543,023 Vol.

1%

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

$572,397 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Khatami

$329,786 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$386,096 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$476,612 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$453,788 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Qomi

$360,325 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$235,522 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$362,189 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$283,725 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$156,659 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$221,356 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$264,031 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$211,486 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi

$398,692 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari

$271,921 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$235,114 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$183,600 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$244,965 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$272,310 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$254,629 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$212,381 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$246,162 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$207,610 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$451,393 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$340,362 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Yasrebi

$166,054 Vol.

<1%

Khalil Mobasher Kashani

$162,156 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$251,521 Vol.

<1%

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,804,186
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 4:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

Market icon

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?

24%
Market icon

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

77%
Market icon

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

23%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 40+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 43%, followed by "Alireza Arafi" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" has generated $25.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?," browse the 40+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alireza Arafi" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.