Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with an 86% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases in February that claimed the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and other key benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Rapid product innovations like Claude Code desktop previews, persistent memory, and computer-use capabilities have solidified its competitive moat, with no major rival announcements threatening the lead in recent weeks. Google at 5.5% and OpenAI at 4% reflect trailing benchmark scores, while smaller players lag further; watch for potential Claude 4.7 previews or surprise model drops before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 87%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.9%
DeepSeek 1.6%
$2,144,988 Vol.
$2,144,988 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
87%
6%
OpenAI
4%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.9%
DeepSeek 1.6%
$2,144,988 Vol.
$2,144,988 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$44,444 Vol.
87%
$38,063 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$485,450 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$1,245,817 Vol.
2%
xAI
$66,334 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$25,902 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$29,435 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$26,921 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$60,906 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$32,324 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,277 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$26,533 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$30,581 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with an 86% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases in February that claimed the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and other key benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Rapid product innovations like Claude Code desktop previews, persistent memory, and computer-use capabilities have solidified its competitive moat, with no major rival announcements threatening the lead in recent weeks. Google at 5.5% and OpenAI at 4% reflect trailing benchmark scores, while smaller players lag further; watch for potential Claude 4.7 previews or surprise model drops before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$2,144,988End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with an 86% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases in February that claimed the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and other key benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Rapid product innovations like Claude Code desktop previews, persistent memory, and computer-use capabilities have solidified its competitive moat, with no major rival announcements threatening the lead in recent weeks. Google at 5.5% and OpenAI at 4% reflect trailing benchmark scores, while smaller players lag further; watch for potential Claude 4.7 previews or surprise model drops before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,144,988End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with an 86% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 releases in February that claimed the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and other key benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks. Rapid product innovations like Claude Code desktop previews, persistent memory, and computer-use capabilities have solidified its competitive moat, with no major rival announcements threatening the lead in recent weeks. Google at 5.5% and OpenAI at 4% reflect trailing benchmark scores, while smaller players lag further; watch for potential Claude 4.7 previews or surprise model drops before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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