Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 5, 2026 release. This latest large language model excels in coding benchmarks, multi-step reasoning, and long-context planning, maintaining a slight Elo edge over challengers like OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3 Pro amid March leaderboard skirmishes. xAI's Grok 5, at 7.1%, lags due to ongoing training delays past its Q1 window, while DeepSeek (2.8%) reflects rising open-source momentum from Chinese labs. No confirmed rival releases loom before resolution, though surprise announcements could shift sentiment rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 75%
Google 8%
xAI 7.1%
OpenAI 3.3%
$622,954 Vol.
$622,954 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
8%
xAI
7%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Mistral
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 8%
xAI 7.1%
OpenAI 3.3%
$622,954 Vol.
$622,954 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$12,246 Vol.
75%
$21,148 Vol.
8%
xAI
$125,315 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$59,750 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$218,854 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$60,685 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$57,108 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$5,150 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$23,450 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$24,591 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$5,190 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$4,938 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 5, 2026 release. This latest large language model excels in coding benchmarks, multi-step reasoning, and long-context planning, maintaining a slight Elo edge over challengers like OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3 Pro amid March leaderboard skirmishes. xAI's Grok 5, at 7.1%, lags due to ongoing training delays past its Q1 window, while DeepSeek (2.8%) reflects rising open-source momentum from Chinese labs. No confirmed rival releases loom before resolution, though surprise announcements could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$622,954End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 5, 2026 release. This latest large language model excels in coding benchmarks, multi-step reasoning, and long-context planning, maintaining a slight Elo edge over challengers like OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3 Pro amid March leaderboard skirmishes. xAI's Grok 5, at 7.1%, lags due to ongoing training delays past its Q1 window, while DeepSeek (2.8%) reflects rising open-source momentum from Chinese labs. No confirmed rival releases loom before resolution, though surprise announcements could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$622,954End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at a 74.5% implied probability for holding the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 5, 2026 release. This latest large language model excels in coding benchmarks, multi-step reasoning, and long-context planning, maintaining a slight Elo edge over challengers like OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini 3 Pro amid March leaderboard skirmishes. xAI's Grok 5, at 7.1%, lags due to ongoing training delays past its Q1 window, while DeepSeek (2.8%) reflects rising open-source momentum from Chinese labs. No confirmed rival releases loom before resolution, though surprise announcements could shift sentiment rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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