Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6, launched in mid-March 2026 as the new default model, has propelled its large language models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—particularly in the Style Control On category—cementing an 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30. This follows Claude Opus 4.6's February dominance across text, code, and reasoning benchmarks, where it achieved record Elo scores like 1548 in coding, outstripping Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (near 1505) and xAI's Grok efforts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Anthropic's momentum amid quiet rival pipelines, though surprise releases from OpenAI or xAI could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$639,360 Vol.
$639,360 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
xAI
7%
6%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$639,360 Vol.
$639,360 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,587 Vol.
78%
xAI
$126,195 Vol.
7%
$22,065 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$60,702 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$219,950 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$61,424 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$6,416 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$58,259 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$6,267 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$24,700 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$25,554 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$5,889 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$6,352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6, launched in mid-March 2026 as the new default model, has propelled its large language models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—particularly in the Style Control On category—cementing an 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30. This follows Claude Opus 4.6's February dominance across text, code, and reasoning benchmarks, where it achieved record Elo scores like 1548 in coding, outstripping Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (near 1505) and xAI's Grok efforts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Anthropic's momentum amid quiet rival pipelines, though surprise releases from OpenAI or xAI could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$639,360End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6, launched in mid-March 2026 as the new default model, has propelled its large language models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—particularly in the Style Control On category—cementing an 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30. This follows Claude Opus 4.6's February dominance across text, code, and reasoning benchmarks, where it achieved record Elo scores like 1548 in coding, outstripping Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (near 1505) and xAI's Grok efforts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Anthropic's momentum amid quiet rival pipelines, though surprise releases from OpenAI or xAI could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$639,360End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6, launched in mid-March 2026 as the new default model, has propelled its large language models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—particularly in the Style Control On category—cementing an 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30. This follows Claude Opus 4.6's February dominance across text, code, and reasoning benchmarks, where it achieved record Elo scores like 1548 in coding, outstripping Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (near 1505) and xAI's Grok efforts. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in Anthropic's momentum amid quiet rival pipelines, though surprise releases from OpenAI or xAI could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions